NFL Week 1 Predictions and Analysis
The NFL season is finally here. Every Monday we will be bringing you a recap of the previous week’s games and every Thursday we will post our predictions and breakdown for the upcoming week. All you have to do is sit back, relax and visit fourthandshort.com.
Week 1 Storylines
Russell Wilson Returning to Seattle
I shouldn’t have to explain to most of you why this is a very big deal. Russ was the Seahawk’s fan favorite for 10 years. He posted a record of 104-53-1 and had a career stat line of 37,059 yards, 292 touchdowns and only 87 interceptions as a ‘Hawk. It will be interesting to see how he plays in his first game back as a member of the Denver Broncos. Denver is better than Seattle, but Mr. Unlimited might let the emotions get to him. Because of said emotional return for Wilson and Pete Carrol’s love for running the ball (they also now have Geno Smith behind center), we love the first play of the game to be a run at -145 (DraftKings).
Potential Super Bowl Matchup between the Rams and Bills
The scheduling experts graciously gave us a matchup of arguably the two best teams in the NFL on Thursday Night Football. The Bills are the current favorite to come out of the AFC, while the Rams sit as the 3rd favorite to come out of the NFC (behind the Buccaneers and Packers). Sean McVay has said Matthew Stafford’s shoulder is good to go, so he shouldn’t have any limitations. Both teams have great defenses, but I know everyone is hoping for a firework show on offense to kick off the new season.
Baker Mayfield against Cleveland
Similar to the Russell Wilson situation, this is the first game Baker Mayfield will be playing against his old team, the Cleveland Browns. Reportedly, he said he was going “to f–k them up”. Baker has since come out and said that was not his quote, however I don’t believe he doesn’t actually feel that way. He might not have a reason to feel that way though, as the Browns gave him every opportunity they could in his stint there, but I digress. The question is who will win the battle: Mayfield or the Brown’s defense. Mayfield might have a chip on his shoulder, but Cleveland has the manual on how to beat him.
Teaser of the Week
Baltimore Ravens -1 / Indianapolis Colts -1 (-120)
Both of these teams cannot start the season with a loss against an inferior opponent in the very strong AFC. Joe Flacco is now officially starting this game, and no one has had any faith in him since 2015. He doesn’t compare to Ravens’ starting quarterback, Lamar Jackson, who is now fully healthy and ready to get back to his MVP form. The Jets are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against Baltimore and now we are getting an extra 6 points. Don’t overthink it.
On the other side of the bet, Matt Ryan and Jonathan Taylor will lead a revitalized Colts team to a win in Week 1. Their defense is strong, they have one of the best offensive lines in the game and they have the best running back in the league carrying the ball for them. The Texans are a division opponent, so the Colts know them well. Indianapolis will have no problems taking care of business Sunday.
Dog of the Week
Cleveland Browns +1 / +105 ML
I know this is barely a dog, but it still counts. The reason it has moved from +2.5 and +120 on the money line in the last 48 hours is because people are finally starting to wake up. Let’s look at the scoreboard:
Defense – Cleveland
Offensive Line – Cleveland
Coach – Cleveland
Weapons – Tie
Quarterback – Carolina
Carolina only has an advantage in 1 category, but it is completely nullified by the fact the Browns have the manual on how to beat Baker. The public has allowed Carolina to be a favorite because of their emotions, take advantage of them by placing a bet on a good team at plus money.
Prop of the Week
JuJu Smith-Schuster at least 47 Receiving Yards (-117)
There are a lot of reasons to love this bet. Besides the fact JuJu has Patrick Mahomes throwing him the ball, Andy Reid calling the plays and Travis Kelce taking a lot of attention away, he is also facing a below average secondary. Shockingly, the did not allow a 300-yard passer last year. A closer look at the box scores though will show you they only played a top 10 quarterback 3 times. Patrick Mahomes is a top 2 quarterback and will easily pick them apart.
The Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill in the offseason meaning 159 targets and 1,239 yards are up for grabs. With JuJu being a full participant in Wednesday’s practice, we can assume he will be a full-go Sunday at Arizona. This game is also tied for the highest total in Week 1 (53.5 points). It will be a high scoring affair giving JuJu plenty of chances at securing 47 yards.
Straight Bets of the Week
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 @ Dallas Cowboys(-115)
Dallas lost Amari Cooper and Randall Gregory in the offseason and Tyron Smith to injury a few weeks ago. Dak Prescott is 4-6 in his last 10 games without Cooper and 7-3 in games without Tyron Smith. The 7-3 seems pretty good until you look a little further and see 5 of those wins came against the NFC East. Michael Gallup still isn’t ready to go for Dallas meaning their second-best receiver is rookie 3rd round pick, Jalen Tolbert. Yeah, we haven’t heard of him either. The lone bright spot might be their strong running duo of Elliot and Pollard, except for the fact they’re going up against one of the best running defenses in the league.
On Tampa Bay’s side of the field, everything is starting to look up at the right time. Chris Godwin is good to go and Tristan Wirfs is reportedly expected to play as well. They did lose Ali Marpet to retirement, but I don’t believe it has much of an effect on this game as Dallas’ pass rush leaves a lot to be desired. As far as Tom Brady and his offseason issues, we don’t see them causing him too much trouble. He is a consummate professional and will be back in the zone come Sunday night.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions Under 49 (-110)
Philadelphia’s strong run game is the reason we love this bet so much. Detroit won’t be able to stop Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts from carving them up. A lot of time will be burned while Philadelphia goes on long, chain-moving drives. Detroit plays a similar type of game as well. They have a great offensive line and a great running back in D’Andre Swift. This game has great potential to be a rough, ugly affair. It will be won in the trenches. Exactly the type of game we want when betting the under.
New England Patriots +3.5 @ Miami Dolphins (-110)
Look, sometimes you make bets not because you like the team, but because you like the number. There isn’t a whole lot to love about this New England team. Matt Patricia and Joe Judge have been confusing poor Mac Jones all offseason. They lost their standout corner J.C. Jackson and made some confusing choices in the draft. For Miami, nothing (pertinent to Week 1) has gone wrong since the offseason started. They traded for Tyreek Hill, brought in an up-and-coming head coach Mike McDaniel and bolstered their offensive line with Terron Armstead. All of this hype has led the spread in this game to go from 2.5-3.5 in favor of Miami in 24 hours. Would I take this bet at 2.5? No. I don’t necessarily love the team I am betting on, but I will always take Bill Belichick catching 3.5 points going against a division opponent with a month to prepare.
There you have it. Our first ever predictions article. Let us know where you agree and disagree on Twitter @Fourthandshort1. If each of our picks lose, come back next week because we will be due.