Our NFL Week 2 Breakdown and Analysis
Week 2 Storylines
Who is a Fluke and who is for Real?
Week 1 always breeds chaos. Every team is usually 100% healthy and has weeks to prepare for their opponent. Because of this, we get a lot of upsets and a lot of teams look better/worse than they actually are. So, who is a fluke? In my opinion, the Dolphins are Week 1’s fluke. They looked dominant against New England. Go back and watch the film though and you’ll see how extraordinarily average they actually were. Miami scored 13 offensive points and 6 of them were on a 4th and 5 from outside the red zone right before halftime. The Patriots drove up and down the field all day, but could not get one play when they needed it. Mac Jones missed wide open receivers down the field multiple times. All in all, Miami is an above average team that is being treated like royalty because they beat an out of sync New England squad.
We told you who is fluke, now let’s find out who’s for real. This might seem a little square, but we are going to go with the Buffalo Bills. I know what you’re thinking. Obviously, the Bills are for real, they are the Super Bowl favorite. But did anybody think they were going to come out and beat the defending Super Bowl champions on the road by 3 touchdowns? The game was never close. Buffalo put the pedal to the metal and never looked back. We already knew the Bills were very good but weren’t sure if they could shake the notion of them not being able to beat good teams when needed. Now we can see this team is an absolute wagon, and I don’t think anybody will be able to stop them.
How Long is Trey Lance’s Leash?
Before the monsoon touched down in Chicago last week, the 49ers looked excellent, and Trey Lance was playing just fine. After the rain started is when things went south for San Francisco. Chicago scored 2 touchdowns on their way to a massive Week 1 upset. With the majority of the 49ers organization penciling this game in as a win, we have to wonder how much more leash they are going to give Trey Lance with Jimmy Garoppolo waiting on the bench. The rest of San Francisco’s roster is loaded. It looked like the Bear’s weren’t going to score a point until the rain helped them out. Lance has to come out hot this week (we think he will) against Seattle or he could be gone by Week 4. Shannahan is not an idiot and if the 49ers continue to lose winnable games, he won’t hesitate to put Jimmy into the starting role. Especially given how weak the NFC is this year.
Our Week 2 Picks
Dog of the Week: Carolina Panthers ML +110
We are not sold on this New York Giants team. Carolina lost Week 1 on a last second field goal and New York won the same way. If these two situations are reversed, Carolina is the two-point favorite. It was great to see Saquon Barkley playing and having fun again, but if we’re all honest with ourselves, he was only good on two carries. This is the perfect spot to fade an overhyped team. Tennessee let New York hang around and eventually Daniel Jones made a couple throws to squeak out a victory. After easing into the action last week, Christian McCaffrey will start to see more touches which does not bode well for the Giants. I think Baker has a big game (for his standards), CMAC and DJ Moore make some plays and Carolina rolls to a victory.
Prop of the Week: Marcus Mariota O 0.5 Interceptions (+100)
Nobody in the NFL is riding higher off a loss than Marcus Mariota. Every network personality is saying he is playing like he did in college and could potentially lead this team well above expectations. I personally don’t see it this way, but I have been wrong before. The good news for us, is that it doesn’t matter what he does the rest of the year, only what he does this Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams’ defense was taken out to the woodshed last Thursday by Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. They are looking to take some revenge and they’re in luck because the lowly Atlanta Falcons are next on their schedule. Mariota will be trying to fit throws into places he shouldn’t against one of the best defenses in the league, giving us a high probability he throws an interception. I also like the Rams offense to get back on track in this game. If Stafford and co. put up 28-35ish, Mariota will have to throw to keep up, only creating more opportunities for this bet to hit.
Teaser of the Week: San Francisco 49ers -2.5 / Cincinnati Bengals -1 (-120)
Dallas lost Dak Prescott, Connor McGovern and Jayvon Kearse in Sunday night’s battle against Tampa Bay. 3 starters they cannot afford to lose from an already depleted roster. The lone bright spot in Dallas is the hope Michael Gallup might finally be ready to play in this Week 2 matchup, but does anyone really think a WR2 will be the difference in a Cowboy’s win or loss? Cincinnati on the other hand is very healthy and looking to rebound from their Week 1 loss to Pittsburgh. Some have speculated Joe Burrow was not fully healed from his offseason surgery before playing last week and the pain might linger into coming games. I don’t buy that as once the second half started, Joe looked more and more like his old self. To me, this means his poor play in the first half is more attributed to his lack of preseason reps and how good the Pittsburgh defense line is. Burrow will start this game like he ended the last one and lead Cincinnati to an easy victory.
This past Monday night, Seattle won the biggest game for the franchise in multiple seasons. The stadium was rocking, and Geno Smith led a 6.5-point underdog to an outright win over Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos. This week is where Geno comes back down to earth. It’s the biggest let down spot in the history of the NFL. The San Francisco 49ers will lock down Seattle just like they did Chicago before the monsoon hit. If you were watching that game, it looked like Chicago might not score a point. Then the floods came and it opened the field up for Justin Fields. There will be no rain to save Geno Smith and it will be an ugly game. San Francisco covers the teased -2.5 easily.
Straight Bets
Philadelphia Eagles -2 vs Minnesota Vikings (-110)
Kirk Cousins in prime time is a dumpster fire. He boasts a record of 8-17 in such games. Last week though he played very well. The Vikings as a whole played great leading to a line we can take advantage of. On paper, these teams are fairly close, but Philadelphia matches up well with Minnesota. The Eagles have a great pass rush, while the Vikings do not pass block particularly well. The Vikings’ run defense is below average, and Philadelphia has one of the best run games in the league. All the Eagles have to do is slow down Justin Jefferson. The Vikings go as he goes. In 2021, if Jefferson did not have 100 receiving yards the Vikings were 2-7. In games Jefferson went over 100 yards, Minnesota was 4-2. The code to beating Minnesota has been broken: don’t let Just Jefferson go nuclear. He is too good to not get his yards and catches. Just don’t let him go off and you stand a great chance at beating them. Nick Siriani is a smart enough coach who understands this. Lincoln Financial field will be rocking on Monday Night and Jalen Hurts will get Philadelphia another big win and continue the great start to the season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints U47 (-110)
Picking the winner of this game would be a very difficult task. We are leaving the side alone and betting the total. Both the Buccaneers and the Saints offensive lines are either banged up or not playing great. Jameis and Tom were pressured on 25% of their throws last week playing against Atlanta and Dallas, both teams with below average to bad pass rushes. On the opposite side of the ball, both teams have very good defenses. New Orleans’ defense was embarrassed last week and is much better than what they looked. They will get back on track this week and get in Brady’s face a lot. I see both defenses combining for 6-7 sacks and forcing 2+ turnovers. Neither offensive squad is able to get into a flow and scoring will be at a minimum. Final score: 21-10 with the winner to be determined.