Our NFL Week 3 Predictions and Analysis
Week 3 Storylines
Struggling Should-Be Contenders
The most interesting storyline so far this season has been the abysmal play by should-be contenders. Teams like the Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals. After Tennessee lost AJ Brown and Derrick Henry’s status still in the air at the beginning of the season, the Colts were considered by many a shoo-in for the AFC South. That has not been the case through 2 weeks. The offense has been dreadful and the defense not much better. They play Kansas City in Week 3, Tennessee in Week 4 (3-4 SU since 2016) and have a Week 5 matchup with Denver. It wouldn’t shock most to see them still winless when Week 6 rolls around. That would be the worst-case scenario but is still very much a possibility based on what we’ve seen so far.
Cincinnati hasn’t looked much better than Indianapolis. Their main, and very obvious issue is protecting Joe Burrow. The best wide receiver room in the NFL can’t do much if their quarterback doesn’t have enough time to throw the ball. They brought in pieces in the offseason to shore up the offensive line, but somehow it looks even worse than last year. I am a believer in Cincinnati and think they will turn it around. However, an 0-2 start strongly suggests this team might have a Super Bowl hangover from hell.
Can Detroit Keep It Going?
The Detroit Lions are currently averaging 35.5 PPG (2nd), 186 rushing yards/game (3rd) and Jared Goff is 5th in the NFL with 6 total passing touchdowns. This offense has stormed out of the gate to start the 2022 season. The defense has left a little to be desired in a few areas, but the offense has done more than enough to make up for it. How long can this firepower last though? They have a good (but injured) offensive line, a clear WR1 in Amon-Ra St. Brown, a top 5 running back and a good, young tight end. The piece that could regress at any point is quarterback, Jared Goff. His rating is up 10 points compared to last year, sitting even with his output level during his Pro Bowl years in Los Angeles. Goff is currently on pace for 51 touchdowns. That will very likely come down, as the most he’s ever thrown in a season is 32. Jared is already almost 20% there though and we’re only 11% through the season. Point is, if he can keep this up the Lions are going to be a frisky team come December and January.
Gambling Section (YTD 7-5 / 58.3% / +1.04 Units)
Prop Bets
David Montgomery Over 66.5 Rushing Yards -115 4.7 241.5
I go into more detail about how this will be a low scoring game below. What do low scoring games mean for running backs? A lot of carries. The Houston Texans are currently 30th in rushing yards/game and 20th in YPC. David Montgomery is one of the best backs in the league and it should be clear to the Chicago coaching staff he is the only weapon they have on offense. The only possible scenario in which this bet doesn’t hit is if the Texans get off to a big, early lead. The likelihood of that happening is rather small, meaning the chance this bet pays out is high. Montgomery should easily see 18+ carries in this game and if the Texans YPC number of 4.7 holds true, our bet will have cashed by the fourth quarter.
Corey Davis Over 40.5 Receiving Yards -104
The Jets have to come back down to earth after their insane, come from behind victory last week against the Cleveland Browns. New York regressing would not bode well for this prop, however I believe there is still reason for consideration. The Cincinnati Bengals started off the season 0-2. No team has made it to the playoffs the last 4 seasons after that start. Obviously, an even worse case scenario is to start 0-3. This is why their foot will be on the gas pedal the entire game. The Jets do not have a pass rusher even slightly comparable to what Joe Burrow has faced in the first two weeks. He will finally have some time in the pocket and will pick apart the Jets defense play after play. What does this mean for Corey Davis? He will see a lot of action in the second half when New York is trying to catch up. Davis has covered this total 73% of the time dating back to Week 1 last season. Clearly the Jets are fine with Joe Flacco throwing the ball a lot as seen in his first two starts. If Flacco has another 40+ attempt game, Davis should see plenty of targets and opportunities to rack up the yards.
Straight Bets
Houston Texans / Chicago Bears Under 40
We are still shocked to see the total at 40 points right now. These two offenses are anemic. Since Watson stopped playing for Houston, they have averaged 11.8 points per game on the road. The Texans are afraid of the endzone if it isn’t the one in NRG stadium. On the other side, Chicago can’t move the ball unless it’s being held by David Montgomery. With Lovie Smith saying he wants to get Dameon Pierce more involved as well, this should be a ground and pound game. Not one you will see on RedZone very much, but one you can easily cash an under bet on.
San Francisco 49ers / Denver Broncos Under 45
The Denver Broncos offense has been highly questionable at best. The running game has kept them from being even more of a laughingstock than they already are at the moment. The problem for Denver is San Francisco is currently allowing 2.6 YPC (1st). You simply cannot run on the 49ers. Russell will have to throw and if this were any other year, that would scare us. The 2022 version of Russell is a different story. He has little confidence, an injured Jerry Jeudy and a coach he doesn’t trust. The 49ers won’t be pressing the ball either. With Shannahan’s offensive style being run-heavy and a quarterback making his first start of the season, I see the 49ers play calling in this game being conservative at best, giving us another great opportunity for an under.
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 @ Arizona Cardinals
Simply put, Sean McVay owns the Arizona Cardinals. He is 9-1 against the Cardinals and would have covered this spread in each of his 9 wins. Atlanta needed a blocked punt returned for a touchdown and a Cooper Kupp fumble at the end of the game to keep it close against the Rams last week. If the Rams would have played a little tighter in the last few possessions, this line would be at least 4.5-5. I don’t love eating the hook, especially in a divisional game, but I can’t ignore the trend. As I mentioned in our blog earlier in the week, the Cardinals really have no offense. If Kyler can’t run, their playbook goes in the dumpster. The good news for us is Kyler only averages 24.5 rushing yards per game against Los Angeles. The defense should shut him down like they’ve done his entire career.