Our Complete NFL Week 4 Recap
Seattle Seahawks 48 Detroit Lions 45
Do either of these teams have a defense? We took the under in this game thinking the Lions would miss Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark and D’Andre Swift. We could not have been more wrong. Jared Goff still threw for 378 and 4 touchdowns. Geno Smith matched that performance with 320 yards, 2 touchdowns along with 49 rushing yards and another touchdown on the ground. This was a track meet from the start. The Lions clearly have the offense, now leading the league in points per game. Unfortunately, their defense is also averaging the most points allowed in the league.
Tennessee Titans 24 Indianapolis Colts 17
The Colts might be officially dead. Johnathan Taylor was held in check all game, only averaging 2.1 yards per carry. Now he’s hurt and will probably miss the Thursday night showdown at Denver. Somehow Matt Ryan threw for more than 350 yards, and they still only scored 17 points. Ryan has also fumbled 8 times in 4 games. The offensive line isn’t helping much, but if a defensive lineman is within a yard or two, he is going down. It’s like the pocket is full of mud whenever he’s back there. The most immobile quarterback in the league and I don’t know if it’s close. The Titans played the most Titans game of all time. Tannehill completed 81% of his passes for 137 yards and 2 touchdowns and Derrick Henry carried the ball for 114 yards and a touchdown. That is their blueprint to winning. They weren’t able to do it for the first two weeks of the season, but now have executed it to perfection the last two weeks to get back to .500
Los Angeles Chargers 34 Houston Texans 24
This game was over at halftime. The Chargers were up 27-7 thanks to a couple Austin Ekeler touchdowns and a Davis Mills interception. Justin Herbert looked as healthy as ever, throwing for 340 yards and 2 touchdowns along with a 69% completion rate. A healthy Herbert is great, but the Chargers are an average team when Ekeler isn’t involved and given their current injuries. Much like Buffalo with Josh Allen, if Herbert has to do everything, L.A. doesn’t win very often. In the last 3 seasons, when Ekeler has less than 60 total yards, the Chargers are 3-6. He has to be a close second to Herbert in the offensive scheme or Los Angeles is toast.
New York Giants 20 Chicago Bears 12
Good lord was this game awful. This was a classic look ahead game for the Giants as they play Green Bay in Week 5 in London. All they wanted to do was grab a quick win and head out. Fortunately for them, Chicago didn’t put up much of a fight. Justin Fields has to hate his life lining up behind that offensive line every week. The rest of the roster doesn’t provide him much help either though. This might not be a bad thing for the Bears. Yes, he doesn’t have much help, but Fields does not look like a quarterback capable of winning in this league. Put Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Hurts or Lamar on that team and they’re probably an 8-9 team. Would it really be the worst thing if Chicago had a bottom 2-3 record and got another chance at a high-value quarterback next year?
Minnesota Vikings 28 New Orleans Saints 25
Justin Jefferson was finally spotted on the field for Minnesota for the first time since Week 1. What a great game for our friends across the pond to see. A lot of action and even a double-doink on the potential game winner. The fact that this game became a shootout was shocking considering the Saints’ top two weapons in Kamara and Michael Thomas both did not play. Andy Dalton added another great backup performance to his resume. If he can just get called on for 1 game a year, he can throw for 200+, 1 touchdown and 0 interceptions easily. He’s 34, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see an ESPN alert on my phone saying he’s the starting quarterback for Atlanta on a Sunday in 2029.
Atlanta Falcons 23 Cleveland Browns 20
If the Falcons didn’t just lose Cordarrelle Patterson for at least 4 games, I would be willing to say they might get to 7 or 8 wins this year. Much to their dismay, they did lose their number 1 playmaker for the foreseeable future. Maybe they will finally use Kyle Pitts? Cleveland let a very winnable game slip away. Brissett did the only thing he hasn’t really done all season: make a mistake. The Browns started off this game with 2 turnovers, taking a move from the Panthers’ play book. I said it two weeks ago, if Cleveland wants to be a in a position where they can make some noise when Watson comes back, these are games they have to win. It doesn’t get any easier for them the next few weeks, with LAC, NE, BAL, CIN, MIA and BUF up next on the schedule and they might be lucky to win two games in that stretch.
Dallas Cowboys 25 Washington Commanders 10
I am not ready to say the Cowboys are good. However, I am ready to say I thought my Cowboys not to make the playoffs bet was a lot safer 2 weeks ago. Next week will be the first big test on this defense against Cooper Kupp and the Rams. If they can hold that offense to 21 or less, they will shoot up my power rankings. Now, they are the Cowboys, so even if they have a decent record, there’s a 100% chance they choke in January. It won’t have been a bad season though. It is, however, a bad season for Carson Wentz and the Commanders. They need to phone it in. They have zero hope of making any noise this year, especially considering how hot Dallas and NYG have started. Just win 2-3 more games to keep the fans involved, maybe take Philadelphia down to the wire and secure a top draft pick.
Buffalo Bills 23 Baltimore Ravens 20
This is twice now Baltimore’s offense has started hot and built big, early leads and then left the building in the second half. The Ravens’ defense played well, only allowing Josh Allen and the Bills 23 points. Baltimore can only expect so much out of their defense when the offense starts the second half with drives of 3, 5 and 6 plays. They finally had an extended drive and Lamar ended it with a horrible interception in the red zone. All credit to Buffalo though. They finally won a 1 score game. The Bills didn’t look great, but this is a massive win on the road.
New York Jets 24 Pittsburgh Steelers 20
Kenny Pickett started his career in Pittsburgh with an interception. Welcome to the NFL. At least he made something happen on other drives, so I can ignore the 3 interceptions. This Steelers team is objectively bad and will more than likely give Mike Tomlin his first losing season of his career. When your entire identity is playing defense and your best (and most expensive) defensive player is out, the odds are stacked against you. Zach Wilson and the Jets surprised a lot of us today. I bet Pittsburgh -3 solely on the fact it was Wilson’s first game back, and he didn’t see any preseason action. It didn’t matter and he made me pay for it. The Jets could sneak up on a few teams this year if Wilson can put a damper on his interceptions.
Arizona Cardinals 26 Carolina Panthers 16
Can the Panthers please fire Matt Rhule already? Let’s look at some of their offensive stats. 32nd in yards, 32 in 1st downs, 32nd in average drive time. I refuse to believe that is all because of Baker Mayfield. Their defense is playing pretty well, considering they’re on the field the majority of the game. The lone highlight for Carolina was how great McCaffrey looked in the receiving game. 9 targets, 9 receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown. As for Arizona, what more can we say we haven’t already said? This is a boring squad that will look great against bad teams and horrible against average and above teams, unless they can get a good play caller in the building.
Las Vegas Raiders 32 Denver Broncos 23
The Las Vegas Raiders finally won a game. They needed it because starting 0-4 in the AFC is a death sentence. Las Vegas made easy work of what had been a dominant Denver defense through the first 3 weeks. Josh Jacobs had not rushed for 70 yards once, and on Sunday he ran for 144 yards and 2 TDs. On the flip side, Denver lost their best running back, Javonte Williams for the season with a torn ACL. A tough blow for a guy many predicted would have an outstanding year. Now the Broncos are forced to work with Melvin Gordon, the guy who contributed heavily to the Raiders win. Russell Wilson looked good when he was dancing and making plays, the problem is it doesn’t seem like he wants to do that very often.
Green Bay Packers 27 New England Patriots 24
New England tried to bust everyone’s survivor pick this week but came up just short. Granted, they needed an extra 3 seconds on the play clock so they could throw a cheap touchdown to keep it close. Zappe might be the next Tom Brady. Who knows after one game, but if there is 1 thing I know about the Patriots after watching football all these years, it’s that they are by far the luckiest franchise from bad calls to their division sucking for 20 years. I don’t think anyone would be shocked if somehow Zappe was New England’s quarterback for the next 20 years, but at least in his first game Belichick kept the clamps on him very tight. He did not let him throw in OT even on 3rd and short in plus territory that could have set them up for the winning FG. That ultimately cost them as GB would drive around 90 yards and kick the game winning FG instead.
Kansas City Chiefs 41 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31
Tampa Bay might have had a better chance in this game had they not fumbled the opening kick-off and let Patrick Mahomes score in 45 seconds. When playing the Chiefs, you can’t make mistakes like that. A close second in things teams have to avoid when playing Kansas City is allowing them to run the ball well. If the run game can’t be stopped, what are the chances of stopping Mahomes? Well since Patrick became the starter, the Chiefs are 23-4 when they run for more than 120 yards. Tampa Bay had 0 answers all night for the offense. Tom Brady and the offense finally showed signs of life after 3 weeks of mediocrity, but it was for not as they were down 14-21 points for a large chunk of the game. Leonard Fournette is the key to this offense, so they have to get him going. The problem is I don’t think they have an offensive line good enough to give him some holes to hit. This team will be fine and win their awful division, but there are certainly things to address in the long run.
San Francisco 49ers 24 Los Angeles Rams 9
The Rams are too reliant on Cooper Kupp (18 targets?!) and they can’t run the ball. They desperately need Van Jefferson back from injury as there just aren’t enough playmakers in this offense. Los Angeles’ offensive line is also a major issue. Matthew Stafford was sacked 7 times in this game. The 49ers have arguably the best defense in the league, but still. Seven (7) sacks is Washington Commanders territory, not Los Angeles Rams territory. Jimmy G and the 49ers offense got back on track after a bad showing against Denver last week. This was a complete team win and has San Francisco looking like a potential contender for the NFC.
Gambling Recap: 2-3 -1.18 Units / YTD 11-11 -1.32 Units
Second week in a row we have had a losing record. The strong defenses we expected to step up were dismantled (looking at you Denver and Tampa Bay). Still .500 on the year, but we have fallen victims to the juice. It’s a long season and we’re only learning more about each team every week.
3 Stars of the Week
T.J. Hockenson / 8 Receptions, 179 Receiving Yards, 2 TDs
Since 2000 there have only been 5 TEs with >170 yards and 2 TDs in a single game. T.J. was number 6 on Sunday. Hockenson was all over the field against Seattle and probably won many people their fantasy matchups.
Rashaad Penny / 17 Attempts, 151 Rushing Yards, 2 TDs
Penny eats the Lions’ lunch every time he faces them. Last October these two teams met in Seattle and all Penny did was rush for 170 yards and 2 TDs. If these two teams meet again, Penny’s rushing yards prop is going to be 130.5.
Jordan Poyer / 4 tackles, 2 Interceptions
Poyer wasn’t the only defender with 2 interceptions in Week 4, but his final one couldn’t have come at a bigger time. The Ravens were in the red zone and a touchdown would have all but sealed the win for Baltimore. Lamar made a bad throw and Poyer took advantage. The interception gave the Bills the ball and they never gave it back, winning on a time-expiring field goal in regulation.