NFL Week 5 Storylines and Best Bets
Story Lines for Week 5
Bailey Zappe Gets the Start
Mac Jones is out another week and Brian Hoyer is in concussion protocol, so Bailey Zappe is getting the start in Week 5. It couldn’t have come at a better time for him since Detroit has arguably the worst defense in the league and the game is being played in New England. It was clear the Patriots weren’t going to let Zappe throw much last week in Green Bay. Bill might unleash him a little more now in Week 5, especially if they have to keep up with Detroit’s high-scoring offense. However, Jared Goff has historically played poorly against New England, so this game could be a snooze-fest from start to finish.
Could This be Matt Rhule’s Last Game?
Matt Rhule and Frank Reich are the two coaches everyone sees as having the “hottest seat”. With Indianapolis beating Denver on Thursday in the worst football game of the 21st century, Reich’s job is probably safe for at least a few more weeks. Matt Rhule and the Panthers lost another bad game last week and are now facing the league’s best defense (San Francisco) in Week 5. If this final score is somewhere in the vicinity of 17-3 or 21-7 and Carolina’s offense has another lackluster performance, Rhule could be gone.
Gambling Picks YTD 11-11 -1.32 Units
Not a lot of straight plays this week. There are a lot of heavy favorites as 6 games are lined at 7 or more. 2 team teasers and player props, as well as some live bets is where we are placing our money in Week 5.
Miami -3 (-120) @ Jets
This is a classic buy low sell high or zig zag game. The Jets are coming off a big win in Pittsburg where Mitch Trubisky couldn’t score points (again) and was benched for Kenny Pickett who threw 3 INTs. Zach Wilson looked both good and bad at times, so overall okay. However, as far as public perception is concerned the Jets are hot and are only going to get better from here. On the flip side, Miami is coming off of their lone loss of the season in which Teddy Bridgewater had to replace the officially concussed Tua. Awful for Tua, but Teddy is perhaps the best backup in the NFL and has covered in his starts at over a 60% clip through over 60 games. Take the better team with a QB that covers and a rest advantage at a very low number of -3.
Teasers
San Francisco 49ers Pk / Jacksonville Jaguars -1
The 49ers burned our TOTW in Week 1, losing to the Chicago Bears in the “monsoon game”. It would take another massive upset for them to lose to Carolina here. Rhule has lost the locker room, so we aren’t worried about a team playing extra hard for their coach on the hot seat. Baker seems uninterested in even being out on the field and a few knockdowns from Nick Bosa in the first quarter won’t help. The 49ers should roll here.
Jacksonville looked bad against Philadelphia last week. The takeaway though should be how the Jaguars were -4 in TO differential and only lost by a touchdown. This Houston team always plays horribly on the road, but surprisingly well in Jacksonville. Last year this matchup saw the Texans come to Florida and win 30-17. There is no reason to think that result will be duplicated in 2022. This Jaguars team is completely different from last year’s squad and should handle a Davis Mill’s led Texans team with ease.
Minnesota Vikings -1.5 / Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5
Chicago is coming off a London game which scares me, but this Chicago offense is so brutally bad I don’t think it will matter. Everyone has seen Justin Fields’ abysmal passing stats through 4 weeks this season. We don’t see any reason that changes now. Justin Jefferson finally got going again last week and now he’s facing a beaten-down Chicago secondary. Kirk Cousins will feed him early and often.
If the Falcons were healthy, the Buccaneers would not be in this bet. Cordarrelle Patterson was placed on the IR this week and Kyle Pitts is out as well. Pitts hasn’t been much of a factor so far, but his presence and skill still force the defense to respect him, meaning the lanes for standout rookie wide receiver, Drake London, have been larger. That won’t be the case on Sunday and after Tampa’s defense was dog-walked in Kansas City last week, they’ll be looking to make someone pay. Marcus Mariota will be the unlucky beneficiary of that rage.
Player Props
Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 Interceptions (-122)
Lets face it, the Rams cannot run the ball. Their offensive line has been decimated with injuries, leaving Akers and Henderson with no lanes to pound. The only way Los Angeles can move the ball is through the air. When Stafford is throwing the ball this year, he is making poor decisions and targeting his best friend, Cooper Kupp, too often. In the 2 games Stafford has faced a top 6 pass rushing according to PFF (SF and BUF), he has thrown 4 total interceptions. Now he is facing another top 6 pass rush in Dallas (3rd). Parsons will have Stafford running for his life all game and when he makes a bad decision, Diggs will be in the secondary waiting to make him pay.
James Robinson Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-130)
The juice is a killer on the bet, but we love it too much to pass. So far, Robinson has rushed for 66, 64, 100, 29 in each game. The Texans are 31st in rushing yards allowed and 29th in first downs allowed. Jacksonville should have no problem running and keeping the ball. The only thing stopping this bet is a potential shootout, but since Davis Mills became Houston’s starter, they’ve averaged 12 points per game on the road. The possibility of a shootout seems unlikely.