Our NFL Week 7 Thoughts, Reactions and Recap
Lack of a Run Game for Green Bay
No one knows what is going on in Green Bay right now. Rodgers looks disinterested, LaFleur’s weaknesses are in the spotlight and the defense is playing below average at best. My biggest question is why have the Packers abandoned the run?
Through the first 4 weeks, Aaron Jones had 48 carries for 327 yards and 1 touchdown. He was running at a clip of 6.8 YPC. The running game was supposed to be the Packers strength. They don’t have a WR1, WR2 or TE. Green Bay’s entire offense should be going through Jones and Dillon. That has not been the case in this 3 game losing skid. Since that loss to the Giants in London, Jones’ YPC has shrunk to 3.5. Not what you want to see, but in those 3 games they’ve only handed it to him 30 times. How is a running back supposed to get into a good rhythm when he’s only getting 10 carries a game?
What is even crazier is the new offensive coordinator, Adam Stenavich, was promoted from the offensive line coach/run game coordinator position. If anyone was going to stick to the run longer than they should, you would think it would be an old run game coordinator. But no, they’ve decided to take the ball out of their best offensive weapons hands, and it has led them to a losing record.
Tom Keeps Losing
The current state of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers might be the most surprising part of this NFL season. It’s not like the Buccaneers don’t have weapons. They have arguably the best WR room. The offensive line hasn’t even been as bad as Tom or the media says. PFF has them ranked as the 10th best pass blocking unit in the league. Brady is tied for 8th in NFL for fewest sacks taken. For perspective, Matt Ryan and Joe Burrow lead the league with 24 sacks. Brady only has a measly 10.
The Buccaneers defense isn’t a problem either. Even with letting up 41 to Kansas City, they’re still only allowing 17.7 PPG. The defense has held their opponents to <15 points in 4 of 7 Tampa Bay games. So if it’s not the offensive line, the weapons or the defense, what could it be?
The biggest reason for the Buccaneers woes is Leonard Fournette. Where has this guy been so far in 2022? Aside from a monster game in Week 1, Fournette has failed to rush for more than 65 yards in 6 straight games. He’s averaging 2.87 YPC and is a major reason why the passing game can’t accomplish anything. Why would defenses honor the run if the running back can’t hit the hole? It’s not all on the offensive line either. PFF ranks their run blocking unit as 14th best in the league. They’re nothing to write home about, but aren’t terrible either.
Until Fournette can get something going on the ground, defenses will continue to disrespect the run and overplay the pass. The Buccaneers need Fournette to step up now.
Jets Beat Denver but Lost Breece Hall
What a terrible, season-ending injury for the young Jets back. Hall had been on a tear and was a heavy favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He’d already put up 681 all-purpose yards and 5 total touchdowns. It’s a big blow for a Jets team that was already making noise. We’re hoping for a speedy recovery for the breakout star.
It’s Time to Respect Seattle
I have been on the fence for a few weeks about respecting Seattle, but after last week’s big win over the Chargers I am ready to hop on board. Geno Smith is playing out of his mind so far this year. Let’s look at some of his stats:
He’s been on fire this entire season and the biggest reason why the Seahawks are leading their division after 7 weeks.
Besides the stellar play of Geno Smith, the Seahawks have also found a gem in Kenneth Walker. Since Rashaad Penny went down with a season-ending injury, Walker has run for 353 yards and 4 touchdowns. After Breece Hall’s injury, Walker is now the odds-on favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Cincinnati, Las Vegas and Kansas City Won with Ease
Las Vegas’ 38-20 rout of the Houston Texans was actually closer than it looks. There was a point late in that game where Houston had an opportunity to take the lead, but a bad Davis Mills pick 6 sealed the victory for the Raiders. Josh Jacobs had another monster day. 143 yards rushing and 3 touchdowns.
San Francisco gave Chiefs fans a scare, jumping out to a quick 10-0 lead after an uncharacteristic Patrick Mahomes interception. That was about the only mistake Mahomes made on Sunday though as he finished with a QBR of 132, 423 passing yards and 3 TDs. JuJu Smith-Schuster is finally starting to shine in this Kansas City offense. It took him 6 weeks to catch a touchdown in the red and gold, but now has 1 in back-to-back weeks.
Similar to Kansas City’s Smith-Schuster, the Bengals’ Ja’Maar Chase has finally flipped to the same page of the book as Joe Burrow. Weeks 6 and 7 have both seen Chase have 130+ yards and 2 touchdowns. This offense is finally looking like the offense that led Cincinnati to the Super Bowl last year. The Bengals don’t play a good offense until Kansas City in Week 13. Any remembrance of their slow start could be wiped clean if they’re 8-3 before that matchup.
Other Notes:
- The Ravens held off the Browns in the 4th quarter to move to 4-3 and remain in 1st place in the AFC North
- Kenny Pickett continues to throw interceptions. Now has a 1-6 TD to INT ratio.
- The Titans beat the Colts again behind Derrick Henry’s 128 rushing yards.
- The Giants stayed hot, moving to 6-1 on the year with a win against Jacksonville.
Gambling Section
We finally had a winning week. Week 7 was capped off with a Chiefs blowout to secure a 4-2 day. We’re 51.5% on the year but can’t seem to overcome the vig. Somehow every player prop we take leads to that player getting injured, as Hall tore his ACL and St. Brown was pulled from the game via the new concussion spotter rule. We might stick to spreads and teasers from here on out.
