NFL Week 10 Storylines and Best Bets
When Will Seattle Get Respect?
Coming into the season, Seattle was thought to be one of the worst teams in the league. They were going to tank for a top draft pick to replace Russell Wilson who left in the offseason. Flash forward to the start of Week 10 and they are 6-3 with a 2 game lead in the NFC West. The Seahawks are so far past their preseason expectations, they can’t even see them in the rear-view mirror anymore. Now this Sunday, Seattle is a 2.5 point underdog to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A team that was losing for 59 minutes and 30 seconds in last week’s game against a distraught Los Angeles Rams team. A Buccaneers team that has already lost to the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers, two of the worst teams in the league.
What does Seattle need to do to get respect? They’re fourth in points per game, 3rd in yards per carry, 5th in third down conversion rate. They average only 11.9 third downs per game. If we combine that with their third down conversion rate, we can see they don’t get into many third downs, but when they do they convert at a high percentage. The defense has been the only drawback so far, but it has progressed a lot in the past 4 weeks, only allowing 16.5 points per game during that stretch. I am all for waiting to declare a team good or not. I am still unsure about the Giants, but Seattle has produced every week for over 2 months. They earned their respect.
Star Quarterback Injuries
Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray are all listed as questionable this week. Allen is obviously the most important player to his respective team. The Buffalo-Minnesota line this week went from 7.5 to now 3 in favor of Buffalo. Allen has now been confirmed to play, but if I am Buffalo, I hold him out until I am absolutely sure he is 100% healthy. Josh Allen is the entire offense. There is no reason to rush him back for a Week 10 game against Minnesota, only to risk further damage and have him out for an extended period of time. As for Stafford and Murray, if both can’t play at least their two teams are playing each other. It would be a Colt McCoy vs John Wolford showdown, something no one wants on their television.
Straight Bets
Seattle Seahawks +2.5 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (in Germany)
I can’t spend the first two paragraphs of this blog talking up the Seattle Seahawks and then not bet them. I honestly have no idea how Seattle is almost a field goal underdog here. The Buccaneers offense has been non-existent the entire season, but because Brady orchestrated a game-winning drive last week I’m supposed to believe they’re back? This line reeks of Vegas trying to trick the public into betting Tom Brady. Don’t fall for it.
Denver Broncos +3 @ Tennessee Titans
Betting on the Broncos this year has not been very profitable, however I like the spot they are in here. Tennessee’s defense has been their moneymaker so far this season. Derrick Henry has been excellent, but Henry can only be effective if the defense keeps the score low. This defense was on the field for 100 snaps and 5 quarters last Sunday night against Kansas City. At the end of the game, everyone could see how gassed the Tennessee defensive lineman were. Denver is coming off a bye and reports are saying they want to play up-tempo. Ryan Tannehill is back for the Titans, but I still like the Broncos to keep it close.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Under 48.5
Jared Goff has historically played awful outdoors when it is cold outside. In games where the temperature is 30 or below he has thrown 6 interceptions compared to 0 touchdowns. It will be 35 on Sunday in Chicago, so that’s close enough right? This Chicago Bears defense isn’t great, but all we need them to do is hold Detroit to 21 or less. The Lions are giving up 26 rushing attempts per game. Chicago is a run heavy team, so the clock should be running the majority of this game. The Bears will find success in the run game, so I think Fields won’t be forced to throw it a lot. This total is just too high for the matchup.
Dallas Cowboys -4 @ Green Bay Packers
I know I am going against a lot of the sharps here, something bettors usually want to stay away from. I just don’t see how Dallas doesn’t come out and win big here. The only advantage Green Bay has is Rodgers might want to play well to give his old coach, Mike McCarthy, a loss. Does Rodgers even care though? Nothing about his play on the field this season points to him wanting to win. Green Bay scored 9 points against the worst defense in the league last week (Detroit). Dallas is better in almost every category. This line is too low.
Player Props
Ryan Succop Over 1.5 Field Goals
Succop has gone over 1.5 field goals in 7 of 9 games this year. The Buccaneers offense is good enough to get into field goal range, but not good enough to punch it into the endzone. Now they go up against a Seattle team who’s defense has greatly improved the last month. Tampa Bay is 23rd in the league in third down conversion rate. If they get into range, the Seahawks will shut them down and the Buccaneers will be forced to kick.