NFL Week 11 Storylines and Best Bets
First Look at Stafford Without Kupp
I know Stafford obviously didn’t have Cooper Kupp in Detroit. What I am talking about is how he and this offense will look without arguably their only play maker. Kupp is averaging over 11 targets per game. Stafford likes to throw to him even when he isn’t open. Who will step up in Kupp’s absence? Will we finally see Allen Robinson become the player everyone thought he would when he signed there? Or will the Rams just phone in the rest of the season knowing their offense is worthless without Kupp? Reports have already come out that if the Rams don’t turn their season around Kupp won’t be back. If I had to guess, I’d say we don’t see Kupp again until September of 2023.
Rematch of Insane Week 1 Game
Cincinnati heads to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers in a rematch of that Week 1 game we all couldn’t take our eyes off. JJ Watt was an absolute menace when he was on the field and Ja’Marr Chase couldn’t be stopped. Pittsburgh’s defense prevailed though as the Steelers won by 3 in overtime. This time around, JJ Watt is fresh off 9 weeks of rest and the Bengals will be without their wide receiver one, Ja’Marr Chase. Cincinnati is tied for last in the league in allowed sacks per game at 3.6, so JJ Watt could have another big game. The Bengals need this win though as they are 0-3 in divisional play. If they move to 0-4 in division and 5-5 on the year, they’re chances of winning the division are slim to none. A win today could go a long way toward staying alive in the AFC North race.
Minnesota Becomes Top 5 Team with Win
If Minnesota wins today, they will have beat Dallas, Buffalo and Washington in the last 3 weeks. 2 top 8 teams and a Commander’s team playing great football lately. Many in the media are still not ready to give the Vikings much credit for their record. It seems the general idea is this team is a lot worse than their 8-1 record would say and have been extremely lucky to be where they are. I will agree they have been very lucky in certain situations and don’t do anything amazing. Minnesota has just been consistently good. There isn’t much more you can ask for.
Best Bets
Teaser
Buffalo Bills -1.5 / Minnesota Vikings +7
A lot of people are staying away from Buffalo due to their hectic travel week. Their game against Cleveland is now being played in Detroit because of the tremendous amount of snow that hit the northeast on Thursday. I don’t care about that because I think Buffalo will come out hot after back-to-back losses. The Bills can’t afford to drop another game here, especially if Kansas City beats the Chargers. The Browns have no offense when they can’t run the ball. Buffalo has the 6th best rush defense per DVOA. The Bills will have their way with the Browns today.
Minnesota is riding higher than they have been in years. One could argue it would be a good time to fade them. I don’t know if they’ll win, but I have a strong feeling they won’t lose by more than 7. Dallas’ poor run defense has been exposed lately and the Vikings have one of the best running backs in the league in Dalvin Cook. Minnesota should be able to control the clock with Cook and find Jefferson in the passing game when needed.
Straight Bets
Philadelphia Eagles vs Indianapolis Colts Under 45.5
Why did Matt Ryan suddenly look decent last week? Maybe Jeff Saturday is the answer or maybe it is because Jonathan Taylor finally had a good game. That streak will come to an end quickly though as Indianapolis heads to Philadelphia to play an Eagles team that just lost their first game of the season on national television. Matt Ryan might be sacked 10 times and Jonathan Taylor will be met at the line each carry. If there is one thing we know about the Eagles, it’s that they like to get a lead and sit on it. I don’t see the Colts pressuring Philadelphia to score late.
Los Angeles Chargers +5 vs Kansas City Chiefs
When these two teams get together it is always a dog fight. The scoring is never as high as one would think when these two offenses are playing, and the game seemingly always comes down to the final drive. Earlier in the year when the Chargers came to Kansas City the line was 3 with Kansas City being the favorite. Now the line is 5 and Kansas City is without 2 of their top 3 wide receivers (Smith-Schuster and Hardman) and Valdez-Scantling is banged up. Toney is still fairly new to the team, so I don’t see him being able to make up for those two being out. It should be another hard-fought game in California, and I like the Chargers to keep it close.
Player Props
Saquon Barkley Over 21.5 Rush Attempts (-121)
Saquon has been the Giants workhorse all season long. Last week, Barkley carried the ball 35 times for 152 yards. The level of usage is insane, but we don’t think it slows down any time soon. Detroit’s run defense is currently ranked 27th in DVOA. Saquon should have his way with them all game long. Additionally, Jared Goff plays his worst football outside in the cold on the road. It’s going to be 38 degrees in New York today. This will be an ugly game and the Giants will run with Barkley every chance they get.
Austin Ekeler Over 5.5 Receptions (-115)
Ekeler has went over this prop line his last 4 games and is 7-2 to this number on the year. He has also had great success catching the ball against Kansas City in his career averaging 5.8 receptions per game. Mike Williams’ and Keenan Allen’s health are both still up in the air. They are said to be game time decisions meaning even if they go they won’t be a full 100%. This leaves a lot of targets on the table for Austin Ekeler. With Kansas City getting Frank Clark back this week, their pass rush should get a bump. Justin Herbert will be forced to get the ball out fast and Ekeler will be there for quite a few dump offs.