NFL Week 13 Storylines and Best Bets

4 Dec, 2022

NFL Week 13 Storylines and Best Bets

NFC East Showdown

The Washington Commanders are heading to the New York Giants on Sunday in a monster NFC North matchup. Both teams have 7 wins with a chance to push it to 8. As it sits now, both are in the playoffs, but a win against a division opponent would go a long way towards staying in. The Commanders have a bye next week. I’m sure they’d love nothing more than to secure a win before getting on the plane to Cabo.

3 Great Matchups

There are a lot of other interesting games on the schedule as well. The Titans head to Philadelphia, Kansas City makes its way to Cincinnati and Miami heads over to San Francisco. These three games each have 2 top-10 teams facing off against each other. I think there are 3 main questions:

  • How will the Eagles’ offense fare against a well coached, top 10 defense?
  • Will the Chiefs avenge both of their losses from last year?
  • Can Miami’s high-powered offense keep it going against a vaunt 49ers defense?

We should have answers to each of these questions by the time the ‘60 Minutes’ clock starts ticking. 

The Raiders are Climbing

Everyone has been dogging on Las Vegas all year, myself included. They’re on a two game winning streak though and have a chance to keep it rolling. If they were to come away win a win today, it would move them to 5-7 overall with their next 3 games coming against the Rams, Patriots and Steelers. All of those games are winnable. Could we be looking at an 8-7 Raiders team heading into Week 17? Weeks 17 and 18 get a little tougher as Las Vegas faces up against San Francisco and Kansas City, but still. We all counted Las Vegas out, but they still have a window.

Teaser of the Week

Baltimore Ravens -2.5 / Seattle Seahawks -1

Baltimore is coming off a brutal loss against Jacksonville last week. In the last 10 years, when Baltimore lost their previous game and is now playing at home, favored by 8 or more, they are 9-0 SU. They’re only 5-4 ATS in those games, but if they were put into a teaser, they’d be 7-1-1. That was a long way of saying Baltimore rebounds well and when given an extra 6 points in this spot, cover at a rate of 78%.

Seattle isn’t feeling much better than Baltimore after their overtime loss to the Raiders last week. However, like Baltimore, they have an easy rebound game ahead of them. The Rams will be without arguably their 3 best players (Stafford, Kupp, Donald). Los Angeles has all but admitted they plan on mailing in the rest of the season and looking ahead to 2023. Seattle needs this game to get back on track as the end of the season nears. I think Geno leads the ‘Hawks to a double-digit win here. 

Tennessee Titans @ Philadelphia Eagles Under 44.5

Titans’ games are 3-8 to the over so far this season, only having gone over the total once since Week 4. The Eagles are the exact opposite. Their games are 7-4 to the over and have only gone under twice since Week 4. What trend comes out on top? I say the Titans, with Derrick Henry being one of the biggest reasons why. Philadelphia is ranked 24th in rush DVOA. Tennessee runs the ball well and should have no problem finding holes today. On the flip side, Philadelphia loves to run the ball and Tennessee has the league’s best rush defense per DVOA.

Dameon Pierce Over 71.5 Rushing Yards

Pierce has been in a slump lately. He started off the season scorching hot but has failed to rush for more than 8 yards in back-to-back weeks. I think he finds his groove again against a terrible Browns rushing defense. Cleveland is allowing over 131.5 rushing yards per game, good for 10th worst in the league. On top of that, Deshaun Watson is making his first start of the season for the Browns. I highly doubt that offense will be in sync, meaning even Houston’s porous defense should be able to get some stops. The Texans play a lot better at home so they should be able to stay in this game, leaving Pierce the opportunity to grab a lot of carries.

Patrick Mahomes Over 308.5 Passing Yards

Mahomes would have hit this total in each of his last 6 games. I see this game playing out 1 of 2 ways. Either the Chiefs curb stomp the Bengals to get revenge for the two losses Cincinnati dealt them last year, one of them coming in the AFC Championship game or it’s a shoot-out. Even though Cincinnati has a great defense, shoot-out seems like the likelier of the two options. The Chiefs’ secondary has really only been tested twice this year. Joe Burrow will have his full arsenal of Chase, Higgins, Boyd and Mixon. Kansas City will struggle to stop this attack. However, either situation I described lends well to Mahomes cashing this over.