Will the Packers stay atop the NFC North in 2022?
Rodger’s Inability to Adapt Will Hurt Packers’ 2022 Chances
The Packers winning the NFC North seems almost like an automatic as of late. They have won their division 7 of the last 10 years, with the Vikings winning it twice and the Bears snagging 1 division crown. The Pack might be in for a rude awakening in 2022. Teams in their division are getting better while they are trending downward.
The loss of Devante Adams cannot be overstated. He was Rodgers’ number one receiver by a mile. In 2021, Adams had more targets per game (10.56) than Lazard and Valdez-Scantling did combined (9). Adams also was Rodgers’ go-to-guy on 3rd down, catching 84 first down balls. Again, more than Lazard and MVS combined (46).
Rodgers also benefitted from the lowest number of drops in the league last year (>1500 attempts). The Packers dropped the ball a total of 13 times, for a drop rate of 2.5%. For comparison, Justin Herbert had to deal with 38 drops in 2021, almost three times as many as Rodgers.
For the Packers to succeed in 2022, Rodgers needs to open up to the possibility of throwing to rookie wide receivers, something he has dreaded his whole career. Christian Watson is WR a lot of scouts spoke very highly of. Rodgers needs to start working with him day 1 if he wants to keep his division win streak alive.
One thing the Packers do have going for them is their backfield. Jones and Dillon are a two-headed monster back there. Both of them were ranked in the top 10 by Pro Football Focus in 2021. If the Packers can play to that strength Rodgers should be able to get the looks he wants, even if it’s not the receivers he wants.
Who Could Stop the Packers Reign?
The Minnesota Vikings will be a thorn in Green Bay’s side this year. New Head Coach Kevin O’Connell is fresh off a Super Bowl win as the Rams offensive Coordinator and looking to make a name for himself. Thielen and Jefferson are already raving about much better it is to have an offensive coach. Mike Zimmer was holding this offense back lately and O’Connell is looking to help it break through.
Could Jefferson be to the 2022 NFL season what Cooper Kupp was to the 2021 season? I think it is a possibility. He probably won’t make history like Kupp did, but the Vikings don’t need him to. They’ll settle for 1,500 yards and 10 TDs. Yes, Kupp benefited from having Stafford at QB and Cousins is not Stafford. Do I think Cousins could lead the Vikings to a Super Bowl win like Stafford did for the Rams? No. But we are talking about winning the NFC North here, not the entire NFL.
Besides the double threat of Thielen and Jefferson, the Vikings also have a top tier running back in Dalvin Cook. He missed 4 games last year and was not 100% in a few more. His usage was drastically down from his great 2020 campaign where he had 1,918 scrimmage yards, 17 touchdowns and averaged 4.99 yards per carry. But again, the Vikings do not need this level of production from him. If O’Connell is as smart as he seems, he will find the balance between a great rushing attack with Cook and a devastating strike in the passing game with Thielen and Jefferson.
The Vikings also had a bad experience in 2021 with one score games. They were 6-8 in games that ended with a difference of 8 or fewer points and went 2-4 in games that ended with a difference of 3 or fewer points. They were terrible at closing all season long. Under new management, I believe the Vikings can at least be a .500 team in this category next season. .500 in 2021 would have made them 10-7. Can 10-7 win the division in 2022? I think it has a chance.