Why the Philadelphia Eagles Shouldn’t Extend Jalen Hurts (Yet)
With all the Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers talk going on lately, we figured we’d turn our attention to another quarterback waiting on his perspective team to make a move. It’s rumored Hurts’ contract could be in the vicinity of 7 years for 345 million or roughly 49 million per year. I would guess his guaranteed money would clock in somewhere around 150-200, but the rest of it would be heavily backloaded. While we like Jalen Hurts as a player and think he could potentially be worth that contract, as it sits now, he just isn’t.
Only One Winning Season
This past year for Hurts was very impressive. He was responsible for 4,460 yards and 38 total touchdowns. He came in second in MVP voting and was a drive away from winning the Super Bowl. No one can deny Hurts looked like a franchise quarterback last season. It’s what he did in the two years prior that scares me. Before Kansas City gave Patrick Mahomes a 10-year deal worth half a billion dollars, he had won a Super Bowl, was an MVP, was an Offensive Player of the Year, and threw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in the same season. The only thing Hurts has to his name is a Pro Bowl and Mitchell Trubisky has been to one of those, so they clearly don’t mean much. The Eagles probably weren’t even sure if Jalen Hurts was their quarterback after the 2021 season. Now the fans want him to get paid 45-50 million a year? One season can’t be enough film to decide something this major.
Never Been Without Top Talent Around Him
The presence of Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson on the Eagles offensive line have made that unit historically good. Jalen Hurts has had two first ballot, automatic hall of famers protecting him his entire career. In 2021, PFF graded the Eagles offensive line 3rd in the league in pass blocking. Last season, they were 1st. Besides the great offensive line, Hurts has also been blessed with outstanding weapons. Smith, Goedert and Brown were about as good of a weapons room as you could ask for in the NFL. What will Hurts look like when the weapons room is depleted, and the offensive line are league average? Will he be able to carry a team? Maybe, but if you aren’t sure, do you really want to be on the hook for 350 million?
Is the Deal Really Team Friendly?
As I said earlier, the deal is rumored to be 7 years for 345 million. Everyone is saying the longevity of this deal makes it team friendly. What makes a deal team friendly is the total money paid, not the length. Patrick Mahomes’ deal is team friendly because he’s worth 55 million per year and he gets paid 40-45. If Jalen Hurts is worth 40-45 and gets paid 40-45, it’s no longer team friendly. Especially not if he ends up being worth 35-40.
Run Dominant QBs Never Work Long-Term
When was the last time we saw a run-dominant or at least run heavy quarterback last longer than 3-4 good seasons? Michael Vick was great, but even before the suspension he had only played a full year once out of 6 seasons. The Falcons were 8-7 and 7-9 his last two years with them and he barely had a 1.3:1 TD to INT ratio. Cam Newton was amazing…for three seasons and they weren’t even in succession. Lamar Jackson was an MVP but owns a 15-9 record over the last two years and hasn’t played more than 12 games since 2020. Now Jalen Hurts is going to be 25 before the 2023 campaign starts and everyone wants him to get a long extension. Why? If the rumored deal was more in the vicinity of 4 years, 200 million with 125 guaranteed it’d make more sense, but I would still think Philadelphia should wait. There has never been a quarterback that scrambles frequently and has worked long-term. You could maybe make a case for Steve Young, but he only surpassed 5 attempts per game once after he got the starting job. Hurts averaged 11 attempts per game last year and 8 in the season before that. Jalen has already run the ball 981 times (including college) and he’s only started two years. That’s three more attempts than Lamar had in his college career and first two seasons in the NFL, and we’ve seen what has happened to his body the last couple years.
Be Cautious With the Extension
In the end, I’m not saying anything Eagles’ GM Howie Roseman hasn’t already thought about, but the pressure of paying players by the media has made GMs make regretful decisions lately. Odds are Jalen will probably have another great year whether he gets his extension or not, but I wouldn’t want to have a 350 million dollar guy on the payroll for the next 7 years if last season turns out to be a fluke and the Eagles finish 2023 with a record of 7-10. And if you think flukes like that don’t really happen, try looking at the stats for Nick Foles in 2013, Case Keenum in 2017 or Dak’s rookie year.