NFL Week 1 Preview, Fantasy Help, and Gambling Picks
The NFL season is finally upon us. Last weekend we got a little tease with the college season beginning, but it’s nothing like the real thing. Get the crock pot going in the kitchen, put on your loosest pair of sweatpants and settle into your personal couch divot. The NFL is back, and life is good for the next 5 months.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
The Jets have been the offseason darling. Every talk show I turn on is talking about how they could be Super Bowl champions. We haven’t seen what Rodgers will look like in this offense yet as he had limited playing time in the preseason. The Jets biggest weakness is their offensive line, and it will be interesting to see how well Buffalo takes advantage of it.
Buffalo’s offseason has almost been the exact opposite. It seems like everyone is jumping off the bandwagon at the same time. Their defensive coordinator left the team, Von Miller is still injured and their star wide receiver, Stefon Diggs, is reportedly unhappy. Usually, the public jumping off of a team is a great time to get on board. I personally like the Bills in this game as I think they’re eager to quiet the noise and wipe last season’s brutal playoff loss from everyone’s memory.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Not only is this a division rivalry game, it also should be the perfect night cap to the first NFL Sunday. All of our questions won’t be answered with one game, but we will get a good look at everything we’ve been wondering about. How will the Dallas offense look without Kellen Moore calling the plays? Can the Giants parlay their success from last season to another good year or was it all a fluke? Will the Cowboys’ defense be as strong as everyone is predicting? I’ve been more of a believer in Daniel Jones than a lot of people. If he can secure a win against Dallas to start the season it would go a long way towards reversing the notion his contract extension wasn’t earned.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
I know this game doesn’t have the firepower of Miami @ Los Angeles or the big names of Cincinnati @ Cleveland, but it’s a bigger game than both of those in my opinion. Some lunatics have gone as far as to say Justin Fields will be an MVP candidate this year. The Bears would have to win double digit games for that to even start to be feasible and no one is betting on that. A win against a lesser Green Bay opponent (at least in the public’s eye) would put them in the right direction though. Fields has no more excuses in year 3. His spot as the Bears’ starting quarterback is on the line if he doesn’t produce in 2023.
I’m also excited to see Jordan Love in this offense after an entire offseason to prepare. Aaron Rodgers is finally gone, and the Love era has begun. It might be short lived, or the Packers might just luck into another great starting quarterback for years to come.
Cleveland Browns +2.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow is the second-best quarterback in the league. He’s still nursing a calf injury though and that means the Bengals could start another season very slowly. Last year, Burrow had his appendix removed in the offseason and it kept him out of any preseason games. He was very rusty upon his return, and it allowed Pittsburgh to steal a win on the road.
Cincinnati also has not had much luck against Cleveland during Burrow’s tenure. They’re 1-4 during that time and 0-2 on the road. Cleveland has a top 3 offensive line (per PFF), an excellent running game and their quarterback, Deshaun Watson, has had a full offseason to get back into his previous form. Watson was able to get reps in two of the Browns’ four preseason games. The Browns’ star edge rusher, Myles Garrett, also feasts on the Bengals. In his nine career games against Cincinnati, Garrett has recorded 11 sacks. He’s on a streak of 6 games in a row with a sack against the Bengals. Cleveland will be less rusty and more ready to come out and play compared to Cincinnati. I like them to win as well, but I’ll settle for the 2.5 points.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts U 46.5
I placed this bet when the number was 45.5 and I’m surprised it went even higher. The only reasons I can come up with for why people are betting the over are because there isn’t a lot of tape on Richardson and the Colts won’t be able to slow down Lawrence. I understand the thought process, but I think the Colts are going to have a tough time moving the ball based on what I saw from Richardson in the preseason. His running ability is off the charts, but at some point quarterbacks have to throw the ball and that is an area Richardson needs a lot of improvement. I see this being a 27-10 or 24-13 game.
6-Point Teaser: Washington Commanders -1 / Pittsburgh Steelers +8.5
This is my favorite Wong teaser of the week. I don’t like betting on Sam Howell, but I do like betting against the Arizona Cardinals. Josh Dobbs was named the starting quarterback for Arizona almost immediately after their trade to acquire him. The Commanders defense should tear him to shreds and their offense is good enough to put enough points on the board to win.
Pittsburgh might be the most obvious team to place in a Wong teaser this week. They’re a home dog in Week 1. Since Mike Tomlin took over in Pittsburgh, the Steelers are 12-4 ATS when they’re a home dog. 12-4-4 to the regular line and now we’re getting to tease through the 3 and the 7. If you gave them 6 additional points in those 20 games their record moves to 19-1. This should be an automatic play for everyone.
Nuclear Production Incoming
Calvin Ridley WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Ridley has looked excellent in preseason and is facing one of the worst secondaries in the league to start the season. Warren Sharp has the Colts’ passing defense ranked 31st in the NFL. The Jaguars offensive line is a cause for concern in later games, but the Colts don’t have the weapons to take advantage of it. Lawrence will have enough time to find Ridley in the open leading to a big fantasy day for both players.
Aaron Jones RB, Green Bay Packers
The Bears have one of the worst front sevens in the league. They allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to running backs last year and didn’t do anything that would fix that in the offseason. They added Tremaine Edmunds at linebacker, but no one is paying him to stop the run because he’s terrible at it. His PFF rush defense grade was 120th in the league last season. The total of this game is low at 43.5. Vegas thinks this won’t be a firework show which benefits the running backs. Jordan Love is getting his first Week 1 start and that is bound to bring a lot of nerves. A few dump offs to Aaron Jones will allow him to get settled in and bring even more points our way.
Others: Jahan Dotson, J.K. Dobbins, Javonte Williams
Sit and Forget
Any WR with a Rookie Quarterback
Michael Pittman, Adam Thielen, Nico Collins, etc. The list goes on. All of their quarterbacks are rookies making their first career start. You could make a case for Adam Thielen in deeper leagues since Atlanta has a bottom tier front 7 and secondary, but I still would stay away until Bryce Young gets a few games under his belt.
Deandre Hopkins WR, Tennessee Titans
We’re going out on a little bit of a limb here with this pick. I think Hopkins will be great for Tennessee this season, but I don’t like him in Week 1. For starters, Ryan Tannehill didn’t play in the preseason. We all know the statistics revolving around quarterbacks that don’t touch the field until the regular season. They start out very slow, usually failing to cover the spread or put up many points in general. The Titans probably have the worst offensive line in the league. The Saints have a league average front 7, but their secondary is easily top ten. I think the Titans will struggle to move the ball through the air and instead focus on giving the ball to their premier back, Derrick Henry. Leaving Hopkins very few fantasy points.
Others: Joe Mixon, All Atlanta RBs (even Bijan), JuJu Smith-Schuster
FanDuel Lineup of the Week
