Week 3 Biggest Games, Gambling Picks & Fantasy Help

Chargers @ Vikings

Perhaps the most anticipated and definitely most evenly matched game this week takes place in Minneapolis, where the 0-2 Vikings host the 0-2 Chargers. Neither of these teams are as bad as their record says and both teams are probably top 12-15 in the league in reality. However, one of them will fall to 0-3 while the other hopes to spring board themselves back into relevancy. This game should be plain old fashion fun. Nobody really knows what’s going to happen, including the Vegas betting market who has this game at pick or +/- 1. We, the consumers just get to sit back and watch two solid offenses battle it out against two terrible defenses. Brandon Staley has to be feeling the heat and needs this game like blood, but will his team respond?

Patriots @ Jets

This may be the ugliest game of the week to watch, unless you are a true old school “run the ball and play defense” guy, but you will be watching it. The Patriots, while never a lock to make the playoffs since Brady’s departure, certainly have aspirations of making it back in order to have something to show for the season. They have just one playoff appearance since Brady left after the 2019 season, and they got absolutely smashed by the Bills in that game. Losing this game to Zach Wilson and the lackluster Jets offense would not just be demoralizing, but put them in an 0-3 hole with still a very difficult schedule remaining. This would put a huge damper on any playoff hopes for the Pats. On the flip side, the Jets are hoping to salvage some of what was supposed to be their break out year before Rodgers got hurt in week 1. Additionally, Zach Wilson is very likely playing for his career’s survival in this league. The Jets don’t want to go through another season of dealing with his miserable play while their defense plays like a top 3-5. But a loss here would move them to 1-2 after their miraculous week 1 win vs Buffalo in OT. We would expect the wheels to really start churning on the Jets exploring options at QB if they lose this game.

Bills @ Commanders

That’s right, the Washington Commanders are actually looking to go 3-0. It would be the first time since 2005 that this franchise could accomplish this feat. I’m not sure the fans would even know how to handle it. Ousting Dan Snyder and starting 3-0, including a win vs a true top 10 team in the Buffalo Bills would be everything they would have dreamed of and more. The Commanders are 6.5 point dogs, but they are riding high at the moment and just have to hope the momentum carries them to victory. They also have to hope that Josh Allen plays more like he did week 1 vs the Jets. They need Allen to turn the ball over instead of keeping the ball and scoring points. While the Bills’ season would not be over by any means with a loss, they would have a 1-2 record without playing any top 10-12 teams. It would be a natural disappointment. In a week with a lot of blowout potential, this one could go either way, but has a chance to be a great game with two passionate fanbases behind their teams.

Side of the Week: NE Patriots -2.5 @ NY Jets

As we alluded to above, Zach Wilson is terrible. Bill Belichick owns Zach Wilson even though Bill has offensive problems of his own. The Pats are 4-0 straight up and ATS against Zach Wilson in this matchup. Wilson is averaging just 173 ypg on 50.1% completion and a 2/7 TD to INT ratio, netting in a Jets points per game of 9.8. What we are telling you is that the Pats could very well cover this spread while only scoring 13-17 points themselves, which may well happen as this Jets defense is legit and Pats offense is bland. You might sweat it out, but history and your eyes tell you that you trust Belichick to cover this number against a terrible young QB like Wilson. We like the Pats to win 21-17.

Total of the Week: ATL Falcons @ Detroit Lions Over 46

I absolutely hate putting my faith in Desmond Ritter to put up 21+ points, but this play just makes too much sense. I’ll explain. The Detroit Lions looked like they had gotten better on defense after holding the Chiefs to 20 points in week 1’s upset win in Kansas City. However, the truth is that Kadarius Toney single handedly killed 3 Chiefs drives with two third down drops that would have put them in FG range and he turned an easy catch into a Lions pick 6. They also never registered a sack on Mahomes (although they did get pressure). They then allow 31 offensive points at home in an OT loss to the Seahawks while only sacking Geno once. Worth note, the Seahawks shot themselves in the foot with 9 penalties for 80 yards so it could have been worse. Lastly, know that 11 of the last 12 Detroit home games have gone over this number (46). The indoor conditions of temperature control and no wind create an ideal environment for passing and field goal kicking. Atlanta is an indoor team as well that is use to playing in these conditions, so they should feel comfortable. While the Falcons have been an unorthodox offense compared to the rest of the league, they have put up 20+ points in each of their last four games. We ride the hot Falcons and big trend of Detroit overs at home for an Over of 46 points.

Teaser of the Week: Chargers +7 (vs MIN)/Dolphins -0.5 (vs DEN)

In a week full of 6.5-13 point favorites, we are not taking the bait of the biggest favorites. A lot of these games smell like traps where teams can let their guard down and let the dog sneak one out or at least cover. We tease the Dolphins because of their pass rush and big play ability. The Dolphins’ defense gets home against opposing teams’ QBs and Russell Wilson is starting to look his age while moving around in the pocket and on the scramble. The Dolphins sacked Herbert 3 times in week 1 and Mac Jones 4 times in week 2. The Denver Broncos will have a hard time getting enough breathing room in the pocket for Russell Wilson for him to take shots downfield. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are big play machines. One big pass to Tyreek Hill or Waddle and there’s a good chance it’s going for TD. If Miami gets up early, look for them to tee off on Wilson.

In the other matchup, we take the Chargers from +1 to +7. If we say these teams are evenly matched (the line says they are), then give ourselves a full touchdown of breathing room, we are likely to win or at worst push. In a game with two good QBs it will likely come down to how much time they have to throw. We think this favors the Chargers with Bosa and Mack. Kirk is more statue-like in the pocket and the Vikings have shown no run game, still with under 100 total rushing yards through 2 weeks of play. So he will be doing a lot of dropping back, which doesn’t bode well for the Vikings if they are trying to hold a late game lead and control the clock. Lastly, keep in mind that Brandon Staley has to be on the hot seat at this point and will be more than desperate for a win.

Nuclear Production Incoming

Drake London WR, Falcons

The Falcons are playing in Detroit and that means points will be on the board. London had a good week last week with 6 catches for 67 yards and 1TD. Usually that means fade them this week. But this type of production is more what you should expect from London and not the no show performance in week 1 where he didn’t register a catch on just one target. Arthur Smith should realize they are better with London in the game plan more, and the game script with pressure from the Lions offense to score points should provide opportunity.

Sit and Forget

DeAndre Swift RB, Eagles

Swift had an explosion of production last week with 170 rushing yards in his first week taking over as RB1. However, this week his Eagles are facing a Buccaneers defense that has allowed totals of 41 and 67 rushing yards in their first two weeks. Combine this tough matchup for yards with the fact that Jalen Hurts gets a large share of the red zone carries (whether planned or scramble or tush-push) and you have an inherent smaller chance for TDs as well. If you have other options at RB or flex, consider the alternative for this week.

FanDuel Lineup of the Week

QB Kirk Cousins $7,800

RB Jahmyr Gibbs $7,000

RB Raheem Mostert $6,600

WR Jordan Addison $6,800

WR Stefon Diggs $8,000

WR Mike Williams $7,200

TE Hunter Henry $5,700

Flex Michael Pittman Jr $6,700

Def/ST Green Bay Packers $4,100