NFL Week 9 Biggest Games, Best Bets and FanDuel Lineup

Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals

A rematch of last year’s epic game that came to a screeching halt once Damar Hamlin suffered his injury. Hopefully nothing of that sort happens again and we can witness two of the best teams in the NFL go head-to-head for a full 60 minutes. Joe Burrow and the Bengals started slow once, but after a beatdown of the San Francisco 49ers, they look like the team that went to the Super Bowl a couple years ago.

Buffalo on the other hand has already had a roller coaster season and we’re only in Week 9. While Josh Allen vs Joe Burrow will be what everyone has their eyes on, I think this game will be determined by how well Cincinnati can run the ball. The Bills have one of the best rush defenses per DVOA and the Bengals have struggled so far this year in getting much going on the ground. Burrow will need the running game to show out to force Buffalo to do more than sit back and play the pass. 

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs (in Germany)

In August of this year, I’m sure everyone was thinking this was going to be the highest scoring game of the year. Now we aren’t so sure. Kansas City has looked like a shell of themselves on offense in 6 of 8 games this year. If they ever take a step forward, it seems like the next week they take two steps back. 

The only thing keeping them afloat is their defense. It currently ranks top 5 in points allowed (2^nd) and yards allowed (4^th). The three headed monster of Tua, Tyreek and Waddle will be the most talented Kansas City has seen so far this year though. This is a classic unstoppable force meets an immovable object game. Something’s got to give. 

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas sits at 5-2 while the Eagles are 7-1. I’m excited for this game, but I really need to see the Cowboys perform well in a spot as big as this before I start to include them in the contender category. They always destroy the inferior opponents and then crap down their leg if they play a team with Super Bowl aspirations. I want Dallas to be great because it makes for a more exciting league. I just haven’t seen anything that proves they will be…so far.  

Philadelphia, like Kansas City, hasn’t been firing on all cylinders on offense so far this season. AJ Brown has put up impressive stats, but everyone else is pedestrian. Jalen Hurts is only trailing Desmond Ridder for most turnovers and Devonta Smith has only eclipsed 100 yards once in 2023. It’s a testament to how strong their overall team is since even with those deficiencies they’re still 7-1. However, it does give me cause for concern. They need to start cranking it up in the coming weeks and especially Sunday if they want to be in the right place come January. 

Jonathan Taylor Over 66.5 Rush Yards (-130)

We have to pay some juice for this, but only because the line is too low. At the time of writing this, you could also get over 70.5 for -121 at BetOnline or over 69.5 for -114 at FanDuel. I like all those numbers because I think Taylor has a monster game here. Carolina currently owns the worst run defense DVOA. They’ve allowed a running back to go over this number in 6 of their 7 games. Since Taylor has been more involved in the offense (meaning double digit carries), he is 2-0 to this number. He’s fresh and I think the Colts are ready to start using him more. Carolina doesn’t have the offense to make Indianapolis have to abandon the run. Taylor should see 15+ carries and with that workload, I have no doubt he can cross this number. 

New Orleans Saints -2.5 / Miami Dolphins +7.5

New Orleans should have no problem handling the Chicago Bears at home on Sunday. Tyson Bagent is who we thought he was and there was never a reason for people to call for him to be the starter once Justin Fields is healthy enough to return. The Saints offense is finally starting to show some life since Derek Carr realized last week he can make other passes besides a dump off to Alvin Kamara. Shaheed, Thomas and Olave, combined with Kamara, make this Saints offense an underrated squad. They have a ton of talent and Chicago doesn’t have the means to stop them. 

I don’t see an avenue towards the Dolphins not covering 7.5 in this bet other than a fluke return touchdown or a late pick six. The Chiefs offense has been anemic lately and with Mahomes being sick last week and then having to hop on a plane to Germany this week, I don’t think he’ll be back to his usual self. The Chiefs take the 6th most time (2.6 seconds) to get to the quarterback while the Dolphins get the ball out the quickest (2.24 seconds), per Sharp Football Analysis. Kansas City will be without Nick Bolton again and I think that will be the difference maker. Tua will be able to carve this defense up with quick passes over the middle to his two stud wide receivers. 

Davante Adams Over 6.5 Receptions (+100 DK)

Aidan O’Connell is getting the start for the Las Vegas Raiders after Josh McDaniels was fired during the week. In O’Connell’s first start, he targeted Davante Adams 11 times and I think that will repeat itself Sunday. While veteran quarterbacks tend to spread the ball around, rookie quarterbacks usually over target the team’s best receiver. It makes sense. If you’re trying to find some rhythm and footing in the pocket, why wouldn’t you throw it to the person you know has the best hands on the team? After Adams’ bad showing last week that included a helmet smash at the end of the game, I think interim head coach, Antonio Pierce, goes with the easiest of game plans this week. Feed the ball to the best weapons on the team early and often.