The Pressure of Drafting Quarterbacks is Ruining NFL Teams

If you’ve been in a casino, you have probably been sucked in by the slot machines. The noises and lights they make are doing their best to draw you in. I always throw a few bucks into these machines as I pass by for the same reason I buy a lottery ticket when the Power Ball gets over a billion: you never know. 

Obviously, NFL teams are doing their research on quarterbacks they choose to draft and not just using the “fingers crossed” theory. However, this thinking has to still be in the back of their minds and it’s costing them years of success. The entire world knew drafting Daniel Jones and Zach Wilson were a mistake. If you put Dave Gettleman and Joe Douglas in Guantanamo Bay for a week after the 2019 and 2021 NFL drafts, they would have eventually caved and told you they made the wrong decisions. 

I’m not saying don’t draft quarterbacks with the top picks. I’m merely trying to point out there is another way to build a championship roster. If you give most of the quarterbacks taken in every draft a top 10 offensive line and a good weapons room, they’re going to succeed. If you throw them to the wolves (ahem Carolina), they’re going to fail, and you’ll be back drafting a quarterback in two years. 

GMs and Coaches are blinded by the possibility of “instant” success they have seen other teams have after drafting a quarterback. From 2018-2022, 17 quarterbacks were taken in the first round. 8 are undeniable franchise guys and 9 of them were busts. A 47% success rate doesn’t seem so bad. It’s obviously much better than the odds of winning the slots I talked about earlier. But let’s take a semi-deep dive into those 8 quarterbacks and see how much better off their team has been. 

I have bolded the names I believe to be franchise quarterbacks (for the team that drafted them). Jordan Love is a cheat code in this study as he was allowed to sit and grow for two years before being given the offense. 

Now we need to look at the success these quarterbacks have had. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are basically the same quarterback in terms of their triumphs. They both have carried their teams to multiple double-digit win seasons, but repeatedly fell short in the playoffs. 

Kyler Murray owns a 28-36-1 record but received a contract in 2022 paying him 46 million per year. He also misses 22% of his games.

2020 was an amazing quarterback draft with Burrow, Tua, Herbert and Love all being above average or better at their position. However, a couple of them have started to lose their sparkle. Herbert is considered an insane arm talent, but he doesn’t know how to close games. Tua is deadly accurate, but if the Dolphins are playing in weather below 40 degrees bet against them. Miami (and the NFL media) isn’t certain they want to extend Tua to a massive deal. Does that sound like a quarterback that’s helping their team?

Trevor Lawrence is the lone bright spot in the 2021 draft. But like Tua, he’s slowly starting to become overrated. Allegedly, he was playing hurt last year and that caused the Jaguars to lose 5 of their last 6 games knocking them out of playoff contention. I’ll buy that only if he comes out and plays well in 2024. His career so far has been one excuse after another. Nothing like what you would expect from the greatest college prospect since Andrew Luck. 

Finally, we get to 2022 and we don’t need to spend much time on it. Pickett is awful and anyone who says otherwise is probably related to him. 

Now I will pose the question this blog is centered around: Should teams prioritize drafting quarterback after quarterback until they get it right or would they be better served if they perfected the rest of their roster first?

Of the 68 teams that made the playoffs in the last 5 years, 28 did so with a quarterback drafted in the 2nd round or later or with a guy they signed in free agency. Those 28 teams have a winning record in the playoffs as well at 27-26. 

Most people think you have to hit on the top-rated rookie quarterback in order to have success and it’s just not true. Look at teams like Tampa Bay, Los Angeles, Detroit, San Francisco, Philadelphia and Dallas. All of these teams have done very well in the regular season and playoffs (not you Dallas) in recent years. They got their rosters in place and then went about finding a quarterback, whether via a later pick in the draft or through free agency. 

The common concern with using this strategy is that great quarterbacks don’t come onto the market very often. While I agree with this, I think the NFL landscape is changing. With this added pressure of drafting the “perfect” quarterback, teams are bailing on capable quarterbacks sooner. Do you know who can’t elevate a below average roster to greatness? Most of the quarterbacks in the NFL. Do you know who can lead a top roster to success? Also most of the quarterbacks in the NFL. 

We’ve already started to see this template be used by competitive teams in recent years. If Patrick Mahomes wasn’t born, San Francisco would probably have two Super Bowls in the past five years using this method. The Rams won one using it. So did Tampa Bay. The path has been illuminated. Now it’s just up to the GMs to be brave enough to follow it.