NFL Predictions by Division: AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs
The back-to-back Super Bowl champions are looking to do something no team has done in NFL history: go back-to-back-to-back. You’ll see whether or not we have them achieving that feat in the coming weeks. The Chiefs will have an easier path than last year as we have them securing the division and one seed. I’ve seen a lot of people again doubting Kansas City. Colin Cowherd predicted them to go under their win total of 11.5. Last year, they only won 10 games, but their offense was atrocious. Kansas City’s wide receivers led the league in dropped passes. Their offense as a whole was incapable of scoring in the second half of every game. And yet somehow, they hoisted the Lombardi trophy again.
Patrick Mahomes is by far the best quarterback in the league and he’s coming back in 2024 with a rejuvenated, if not still sub-par, weapons room. Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown (now out for the first couple weeks) are a better 1-2 punch than the Chiefs had last year. It’s still not great. Travis Kelce maybe has two good years left in him if he’s lucky. But the offense isn’t what won them a ring last year and won’t be what drives their success in 2024. It will be the defense led by Chris Jones and Steve Spagnuolo.
Kansas City has drafted well on the defense the last two years and their young talent should be in in L’Jarius Sneed’s absence. This defense wasn’t even at their best last year as they were without Nick Bolton and Bryan Cook for a lot of the season. “Spags” should have this crew back in the top 3 for a second straight year.
Key Additions
WR Hollywood Brown
WR Xavier Worthy
Key Losses
CB L’Jarius Sneed
Los Angeles Chargers
Every year the NFL media hypes the Chargers up from July through August and every year they let us down. “This year will be different. They finally have a great head coach. “Yes, I know. Can Jim Harbaugh win with this terrible roster? Doubtful. The lone bright spot is, and has been since his rookie year, Justin Herbert. A very good quarterback. Is he capable of winning any big game ever? That’s still to be determined. If we were just going off talent alone, Herbert is easily top 5. Talent alone doesn’t win division, conferences or Super Bowls. Hopefully Harbaugh can get him going in the right direction. I just don’t think it will be in 2024.
Here is the Chargers’ weapon room: WR1 Joshua Palmer, WR2 DJ Chark Jr., WR3 Quentin Johnston, TE Will Dissly, RB Gus Edwards. Palmer and Chark Jr. wouldn’t be WR2s on most NFL teams and Johnston has bricks for hands. No one knows what to expect from rookie Ladd McConkey. Gus Edwards will get you 3 yards if you need 3 yards but will also get you 3 yards if you need 5. Dissly is league average at best. Who will be the threat on this offense? The offensive line is good enough to give Herbert time to see no one is open. I don’t like anything about their defense either. They have a great safety. That’s the lone bright spot. Joey Bosa is already hurt, and Khalil Mack is 45 years old. I’m out on L.A. Talk to me in 2025 if they have a good draft and free agency.
Key Additions
C Bradley Bozeman
TE Will Dissly
RB Gus Edwards
Key Losses
RB Austin Ekeler
WR Keenan Allen
LB Eric Kendricks
Denver Broncos
I really like the pairing of Sean Payton with Bo Nix. Nix allegedly won’t be the Week 1 starter. I don’t mind the move. It clearly shows the Broncos are punting on 2024 as they should. 2024 needs to be a year solely focused on growing Bo Nix.
I don’t expect Nix to be Mahomes, Allen or Burrow. If the Broncos can get Alex Smith or Brock Purdy level production, I think they’d be very happy. He won’t be able to produce that this year though with the Broncos roster. There just aren’t enough good players. They have no chance at a division title. A sneak in Wild Card berth will only hurt their draft pick in 2025. Denver needs to focus on progressing their current players and on the future.
Key Additions
S Brandon Jones
DT Malcom Roach
Key Losses
C Lloyd Cushenberry III
QB Russell Wilson (although feels like a gain)
Las Vegas Raiders
I want to like the Las Vegas Raiders so much. Maxx Crosby seems like a cool (and very scary) dude. Davante Adams is a hall of fame receiver. Antonio Pierce is down to earth and seems like he really wants to bring success to a franchise without any in two decades. I say all that to say this: in an offensive driven league, Las Vegas doesn’t have any.
They have a decent defense. A defense that will find ways to win them games in 2024. It just won’t be a lot of games. If you take out the 63-point anomaly win over the Chargers, they scored an average of 21 points in each win. Three of their wins came when the offense scored 17 or less. I don’t think Aidan O’Connell will take a step forward. Especially given the fact they have the 8th hardest schedule (per SharpFootballAnalysis). They will likely only be favored three times this year (vs CAR, vs PIT, vs DEN). I hope I’m wrong about this team. I just don’t think I will be.
Key Additions
DT Christian Wilkins
QB Gardner Minshew
Key Losses
RB Josh Jacobs
OT Jermaine Eluemunor