Can Derek Carr be the 2022 NFL MVP?
Derek Carr has long been one of the most underrated players in the NFL. Not underrated in the sense he is never talked about or no one knows who he is. More so his consistent stats (considering what he is doing it with) are often overlooked. The casual football fan would most likely put him outside the top 10, maybe 8-10 if they really like him. I am going to tell you how he can be the 2022 NFL MVP.
To find a year where Carr’s weapons will even come close to the ones he has in 2022, we have to go all the way back to 2016. The Raiders had Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree at WR (both were 1000+ yard receivers) and a balanced running attack with 3 players combining for almost 1,800 yards. How did the Raiders do that year? Only had the 4th best record in the NFL at 12-4.
Now take a look at what he has to work with in 2022. He has arguably the best receiver in the NFL in Davante Adams, a scrappy Edelman-like WR in Renfroe, a top 3-5 TE in Darren Waller and a great running back in Josh Jacobs. If everyone stays healthy, this offense has the ability to be one of the best in the league.
One of Carr’s most talked about faults the last couple years is how often he tries to force the ball to Waller. I can’t say I blame him though. The other weapons he had in Waller’s first couple of seasons were less than spectacular. With Adams and an emerging star in Renfroe, Carr should now be able to spread the ball around. The Raiders might be almost as hard to defend as the Kansas City Chiefs. I am not saying Carr is on Mahome’s level. What I am saying is who do you choose to defend? If you double Adams, Renfroe and Waller will torch you. Try to double Waller? Adams and Renfroe will pick you apart. Try to take away the passing game altogether? No problem, Jacobs will rush for 4.5 YPC and papercut you to death. There will not be a good way to contain them.
Besides the weapons holding Derek Carr back in the past, his coaches also haven’t been the most helpful. Jack Del Rio wasn’t horrible, but as the league shifted to more offense driven, his methods quickly became outdated. From Del Rio, the Raiders pivoted to Jon Gruden in 2018. Gruden kicked off his return to the HC spot with a 4-12 campaign. It never really seemed like he clicked in that role, often being more of a distraction than a coach. He was finally let go in 2021 and for good reason.
Finally, in this offseason the Raiders finally gave Carr an offensive minded, non-toxic head coach. They hired the New England Patriots offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels. If he can make some people think Mac Jones is the next Tom Brady, imagine what he can do with a quarterback who is actually talented. However, I am a firm believer Josh McDaniels does not even have to be a good coach. He can be average, but if he gives this Raiders team some stability, the glass ceiling they’re stuck under might shatter.
The one thing Derek Carr does not have going for him if he wants to win this award is how strong the AFC West is. If you have been living under a rock, our blog on the historical amount of QB talent in the AFC West will catch you up. If you have been following the NFL all offseason though (like us), the powerful AFC West needs no explanation. Insane QB talent, top edge rushers, some of the league’s best receiving talent, it really doesn’t get much better. Which is why if Derek Carr can lead his Raiders to an AFC West crown, he will be the automatic MVP. It will be easier for Brady or Stafford to win the whole NFC than it will for one of these AFC West QBs to just win their division. If Carr can best Mahomes, Herbert and Wilson and become division champion, I don’t see how the panel gives the MVP to anyone else (barring some insane 5000 and 50 season).
As we all know, the team record is almost as meaningful as the stats the MVP puts together. Derek Carr and the offense can do a lot, but they can’t help out on the defensive side of the ball. In 2021, the Las Vegas Raiders’ defensive DVOA was 17th in the league, just barely above average. Pro Football Focus had them two rungs lower at 19th. The offseason addition of Chandler Jones should be able to take this defense to the next level. Combining his and Maxx Crosby’s pass rush abilities will have every quarterback they face running for their life. I don’t believe Jones will take them inside the top 10, but if they can land in the 11-13 range, that should be enough to give the team an extra win or two, maybe making them 12-5 and division champs.
With Adams being added to the offense, McDaniels to the coaching crew and Jones to the defense, I believe the Raiders finally have the tools to take the next step in this league. It could be all for naught as they are in the strongest division by far and have the league’s 28th hardest record. If he ended up with 4,500 yards, 35-40 touchdowns and an 11-5 record, I wouldn’t be shocked, and that stat line could be enough to secure the award.