Mike Tomlin Will Finally Have a Losing Season

One of the craziest stats in sports is Mike Tomlin’s inability to have a losing season. Since he took over the team in 2007, the Steelers have never dipped below 8-8. 2022 might be the year his streak finally ends.

The first thing to look at is who will be running Tomlin’s team in 2022. More than likely, that player will be Mitch Trubisky. Kenny Pickett could vie for the starting job early in the season. If he succeeds, I only feel stronger about my claim. With the way Big Ben ended his career, neither QB will be a downgrade. If Trubisky earns the role and can get back to the level of his Pro Bowl season in 2018, he might even be better than Ben was in 2021. Realistically though, what can we expect from Mitch? If he can just mirror Ben’s 2021 stats, I think the Steelers would call that a win. However, I am not sure that stat line brings the team to a .500 record with this year’s schedule.

If Trubisky (or Pickett) doesn’t succeed in Pittsburgh, it won’t be for a lack of weapons. The stack of Claypool, Johnson, Friermuth and Harris is something to be feared. One does have to wonder how Harris’ body will hold up though after touching the ball a league leading 381 times in 2021. He is in his sophomore season and only 24, both good things for the Steelers. There has been somewhat of a curse on running backs the season after they lead the league in touches though. Since 2010, the running back with the most touches in the previous season has gone on to miss (or not start due to lack of production) an average of 8.5 games the following year. Not a good sign for a team heavily reliant on production from the running back spot. 

The Steelers might have a below average quarterback in 2022, but everyone else in their division won’t. Last year, the Steelers swept the Browns and Ravens, something they won’t be able to do in 2022. With a healthy Lamar Jackson, the Steelers would be lucky to get a split of their two games. Cleveland is now much better as well since they swapped out Baker Mayfield for Deshaun Watson. The current speculation on Watson’s suspension is 4-6 games. With Pittsburgh headed to Cleveland Week 2, the Brown’s will likely be led by Jacoby Brissett. A split between Pittsburgh and Cleveland is reasonable. The last division opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals, went 2-0 against the Steelers last season. I am down on the Bengals this year, so I don’t think either team will be swept. The realistic scenario is a split. If these games play out the way I think they will, the Steelers will fall from 4-2 in division games to 3-3. 

To add insult to injury, the Steelers’ out of division schedule is just as tough. Warren Sharp has their strength of schedule at 4th hardest in the league. Below are their non-division matchups:

If my 3-3 division record prediction holds true, would they be able to go 6-5 in the above games? I don’t think so. They should pick up 3 wins against Atlanta, Carolina (barring any QB trade) and the Jets. That would make them 6-3. Out of the remaining 8 games, I can’t find 3 wins. Maybe New Orleans at home Week 10 coming off a bye? The Saint’s defense is one of the best in the league though, so even off a bye they would be a tough out. You could talk me into New England, unless Pickett is starting. Belichick would destroy him in his second career start. With a brutal stretch of Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Miami and Philadelphia (Week 5-8), the Steelers could be 2-6 heading into the bye with the season in shambles. If that very realistic possibility happens, I give the chance of a 7-2 streak to end the year almost 0%.

The defense in 2021 was both amazing and dreadful. Football Outsiders had their passing defense 8th best in the NFL, but their rush defense was a lowly 27th. They allowed the most rushing yards, and their average scoring margin was a mystery. The Steelers average score had them losing by 4.2 points. That was the lowest scoring margin for a team with a winning record in 2021. One of the lone bright spots on the defense was TJ Watt’s spectacular play. He tallied 22.5 sacks, which tied the single season record set by Michael Strahan. However, sacks are a lot like turnovers, they rarely follow you year to year. In the last 10 NFL seasons, players with 19 or more sacks in one year had on average 9.3 less sacks the next (12 instances). If that number stays true for Watt, it will give him 13 sacks. 13 is still a good number, but how many games did he turn for the Steelers with those extras? They were 5-1 in games he had 2 or more sacks. I have to think that number will come back down to earth, further hurting the Steelers’ chance at staying .500 or better

The Steelers’ and Mike Tomlin’s insane run will come to an end in 2022. With the signing of Trubisky, it is clear they aren’t putting too much hope into this year. They have given me no reason to think the defense will be any better at stopping the run and T.J. Watt is bound to come back down to earth. The streak will end at a very impressive 15 seasons.