NFL Predictions by Division: AFC East
Miami Dolphins
I have a feeling come mid-December I’m going to hate this pick. Miami does have a very easy first eight weeks and that is what I believe will be their division winning driver. If they can get past back-to-back home games against Jacksonville and Buffalo to begin the year, they should be 7-1 or 6-2 at the worst come their Week 9 game at Buffalo. At that point it’s a crap shoot. Tua is a well-known cold weather hater. They’re also usually injury riddled by then. I have a love-hate relationship with this pick.
Miami obviously has the pieces to be a division winner. Hill and Waddle are the first- or second-best wide receiver duo in the league. Achane and Mostert were the first and fifth best running backs last year (per PFF). McDaniel does a great job of calling plays that put his guys in the best positions to succeed.
Christian Wilkins left in free agency and Miami didn’t do much to replace him. Chubb and Phillips on the outside should still be good enough to apply pressure. Their biggest question mark on defense is Jalen Ramsey. He’s getting up there in age. If he can have a bounce back year it will go a long way towards getting the Dolphins the AFC East crown.
Key Additions
C Aaron Brewer
ED Shaquil Barrett
Key Losses
ED Andrew Van Ginkel
DT Christian Wilkins
G Robert Hunt
Buffalo Bills
This seems to be the year everyone is picking against the Buffalo Bills. I don’t really understand it. I have seen a lot of reputable people slot them at 8-9, missing the playoffs. Last season, this team finished the year on a five-game win streak. After firing their offensive coordinator, their run game was more efficient and Josh Allen was able to be the key piece in their scheme, not the entire scheme.
The Bills traded Stefon Diggs in the offseason. A perceived big blow to their offense. However, I think there’s a chance this is a positive. What is one thing that can tank any team? A big ego. There isn’t a bigger ego than the one Diggs has. This offense has a chance to be much more balanced than in years past and I see that as a positive. Cook can rush for 1,200 yards, Kincaid and Knox can combine for 1,800 yards and their wide receivers can pick up the scraps. We know Allen will still be effective in the run game.
Buffalo’s defense is getting older. Matt Milano just tore his bicep in practice, making him out indefinitely. But McDermott is a defensive minded coach who can get the most out of his guys. I was nervous about picking Buffalo to win the division. I wouldn’t be shocked however if they did.
Key Additions
WR Curtis Samuel
Key Losses
LB Tyrel Dodson
C Mitch Morse
WR Stefon Diggs
New York Jets
A+ defense being let down year after year by the offense. That’s how I would describe the New York Jets. Four of their defensive starters were top 10 at their positions last year (per PFF). Quincy Williams and Sauce Gardner were first team All-Pro. Quinnen Williams and Jermaine Johnson II were both Pro-Bowlers. They weren’t very good against the run, but it was impossible to move the ball on them through the air. Even if they just improve to league average against the run and maintain their dominance in the skies, they’ll be a top three defense easily.
The defense however isn’t the problem. It’s the offense. They have good weapons. Breece Hall is a top, young back and Garrett Wilson is a great WR1. New York even improved their offensive line significantly with the signings of Morgan Moses and Tyron Smith. I’m just not a believer in Aaron Rodgers. He’s going into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot and will likely be considered a top 5 quarterback of all time. But he’s old, coming off an Achilles tear, doesn’t have great mobility and is honestly a shell of his former self. He’s a big distraction to the locker room and hasn’t played at a top level in over 1,300 days. Rodgers will be good enough to get New York above .500, which it itself is a feat, but that’s it.
Key Additions
LT Tyron Smith
OT Morgan Moses
LB Haason Reddick (maybe?)
Key Losses
S Jordan Whitehead
New England Patriots
It’s likely going to be awhile before the Patriots are back in any discussion revolving around good football teams. They spent their first-round pick on Drake Maye. Which wouldn’t be a terrible thing except he’s a project quarterback with no help. New England’s offensive line is terrible. Their best wide receiver is household name Demario Douglas. Even their tight ends, Hooper and Henry, are what you hope to see as the number two options on the depth chart. Not the starters.
New England’s defense will be fine again. It might stumble out of the gates without Bill there anymore. I expect it to finish league average or maybe a little better. A league average defense and a terrible offense is exactly what lands you at 5-12 though. They missed out on the Brandon Aiyuk sweepstakes and are allegedly “sticking with what they have“. What they have is hot garbage. They have 41 million in cap space this year and no one on the horizon who they have to pay big money to. They better get Maye some help before next season or they’re going to be looking at a wasted first round pick.
Key Additions
QB Drake Maye
Key Losses
No one of note