NFL Week 1 Thursday Night Football Preview: Chiefs vs Ravens

In a few short hours, the NFL season will officially kick off. What better way to begin than with a rematch of the AFC Championship Game from eight months ago. Let’s dig into it.

TNF Preview

I bet Chiefs -2.5 a week or so ago when the line dipped below 3 for a day. I’m down on Baltimore to start the season and there’s one big reason why: their offensive line.

The Ravens’ offensive line has three new starters. With that much turnover, we don’t expect this unit to be in sync until at least Week 4 or 5. Their first test is arguably their hardest of the season. Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best defensive coordinators in the game. Chris Jones is a top defensive tackle. George Karlaftis is coming on strong as a great edge player. Lamar won’t have a lot of time to throw which will be a problem if the Kansas City offense comes out hot.

The Ravens did add a nice offensive piece to their arsenal, Derrick Henry. Unfortunately, I don’t think Henry will have the opportunity to be a big factor tonight. The reason for that is Patrick Mahomes. He will be without Hollywood Brown, but he still has Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy at his disposal. A good running back combo of Pacheco and Perine and the best offensive mind in NFL history, Andy Reid, calling the plays. I’m sure I sound like Nick Wright with how much love I’m showing Kansas City, I just don’t think the Ravens have as good of a shot as the market thinks.

One player I’ll be watching for Baltimore is their new cornerback, Nate Wiggins. He was their first round pick this past draft and has played well in the preseason. Wiggins was PFF’s Defensive Rookie of the Preseason. If Wiggins keeps getting better, he and Kyle Hamilton will be a two-headed monster in the secondary no quarterback wants to deal with.

Baltimore’s Key to Success

There’s only one key for Baltimore and that’s to keep Patrick Mahomes and his arsenal off the field. In order to do that, Derrick Henry needs to start fast. The offensive line has to give him space to run for chunk plays. They don’t need 15+ yard gains. 4-5 yards each time will be enough to chew up the clock and keep Mahomes on the sideline.

Kansas City’s Key to Success

Don’t drop the ball. It’s that simple. Kansas City probably would have won 2-3 more games last year if their wide receivers didn’t forget how to catch. They got rid of the clubhouse cancers, Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdez-Scantling. The remaining wide outs just need to do their biggest job, and the Chiefs should win Thursday night.

Official Game Pick

If this was a week 10 game, I’d probably favor Baltimore a lot more. The motivation factor for Baltimore is erased by the fact Kansas City lost last year’s banner night and do not want to do it again. I like Kansas City to win 24-17.

Player Props We Like

I don’t blame you if you want to have a little action on the first game of the year. If I could pick my two favorite props, they would be George Karlaftis over 0.5 sacks (+120) and Lamar Jackson over 46.5 rushing yards (-113). Both of those props are based on the fact I think Baltimore’s offensive line will struggle. They would be even more attractive if Kansas City can get out to a 10-point lead and the Ravens have to start throwing more than they want to.