NFL Week 12 Biggest Games, Best Bet and FanDuel Lineup
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
If you would have asked me what one of the biggest games of Week 12 would be before this season, I would not have said Jacksonville at Houston. Jacksonville was supposed to be continuing off their strong 2022 finish, but Houston was definitely thought to be a project. CJ Stroud was a rookie and even if he played decently, there just wasn’t enough pieces around him for the Texans to succeed. Fast forward to November 25th and the Texans look like one of the top teams in the AFC. CJ Stroud is one of the best rookie quarterbacks we’ve seen in a long time and Demeco Ryans is a strong candidate for Coach of the Year. I am very excited to watch this team this weekend and for years to come.
Jacksonville is no slouch either and even though they have sole possession of the AFC South, Houston is knocking on the door. The Jaguars are off a very nice rebound win against Tennessee; however, the Texans might be one of the worst teams they can face right now. A loss to Houston would drop them to second place in their division and give the Texans the tie breaker as the Jaguars have already lost to Houston earlier in the year. I have Jacksonville higher in my ratings, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Stroud have another stellar game on the way to a Texans victory.
Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Bills finally had a good game last weekend after firing their offensive coordinator. Even if the firing wasn’t the reason the Bills dominated, it was clear Josh Allen was playing with a renewed confidence. I think this is as good a spot as any for Buffalo to steal a win on the road. Philadelphia is coming off a tough, grind it out game in Kansas City. They were able to win but looked terrible doing it. Besides two or three chunk yardage plays, the Eagles offense was non-existent. They are also in a massive look ahead spot as they play San Francisco next weekend. Those 49ers are one of the only other teams in the NFC vying for the one seed. It seems like Philadelphia has been hanging on by a thread these last few weeks and Buffalo might be the team that finally puts another tick in their L column. Having said all this, I’m sure Josh Allen will make me eat my words and throw two red zone interceptions.
Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers
Baltimore hasn’t faced a top 10 quarterback arguably all season. Goff, Burrow and Stroud are the best they have went up against. Burrow was still hurt, Stroud was in his first start as a rookie and Goff is Goff. In my opinion, this defense is getting its first real test as far as quarterback play goes. I know the Chargers have their problems and Jackson should have no issues on the offensive side of the ball, but I’m looking forward to seeing how this defense performs.
If Baltimore shows out on Sunday Night Football and wins by a score of around 27-14 or 31-17, is this the week Brandon Staley is fired? It would put the Chargers at 4-7. That would be the worst record through 12 games in Staley’s career in LA and would likely lead to the worst record in general since Anthony Lynn’s last year as the Chargers’ head coach. In all likelihood, Staley finishes out the year as head coach. The Chargers organization is too cheap to fire him midseason. But how long can the front office continue to see every person in America say Staley should be fired? This isn’t just the dumb, drunken idiots at the local watering hole either. This is every single talking head, analyst and other front office members as well. At some point, enough is enough.
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I make this game closer to -3.5-4 in favor of Indianapolis. The Colts are one point better in my ratings, but they are getting 1.5 points for home field advantage and another 1.2 points for being off a bye. Tampa Bay hasn’t been able to run the ball all season and I don’t know why that would change on Sunday. They’ve lost 5 of their last 6 and I think the magic that was there at the beginning of the year has faded. Conversely, Indianapolis has as much of a chance as any at one of the last AFC wild card spots after the recent injuries to Burrow and Watson. The Colts offense (9th in PPG) also has a much easier time scoring the ball compared to Tampa Bay (23rd in PPG). As long as Gardner Minshew doesn’t make mistakes and manages the game well (I know that’s a big ask), I think the Colts cover this number easily.
Our FanDuel lineup of the week is below. We’re going with a Mahomes-Rice stack. Patrick Mahomes absolutely demoralizes the Raiders every time he faces them and I don’t see how that changes any time soon. Especially after a game in which he was nowhere near his best self.
QB – Patrick Mahomes – $8,700
RB – Kareem Hunt – $6,000
RB – James Conner – $6,600
WR – Rashee Rice – $5,700
WR – Tank Dell – $7,800
WR – Michael Pittman Jr. – $7,600
TE – Pat Freiermuth – $4,900
FLEX – Mike Evans – $8,000
D/ST – New England Patriots – $4,500