NFL Week 14 Storylines and Best Bet
Is Minnesota a Fraud?
The 10-2 Vikings are currently 2-point dogs on the road against the Detroit Lions. Minnesota doesn’t have any big injuries. Detroit didn’t get an important piece back from the IR. The public simply hates the Vikings, with their point differential being the main factor everyone points to. Currently, Minnesota has scored only 10 more points than their opponents, yet they own one of the best records in the NFL. For reference, Kansas City has one less win than the Vikings, yet have scored 80 more points than their opposition. Point differential matters, but doesn’t winning games mean more? I am not saying Minnesota is a top 5 team. We currently have them placed at 8th in our power rankings. That’s a lot higher than most people have them and I struggle to understand why.
Let’s take a look at the teams we have behind Minnesota in our power rankings. The next five teams (in order) are Tennessee, Seattle, Baltimore, New York (Giants), and Washington. A case could maybe be made for Tennessee before last week, but after losing to Philadelphia by 25, I don’t see how they fared any better than Minnesota. Seattle’s defense is atrocious, and their offense isn’t better than the Vikings. Baltimore is without Lamar Jackson for a bit and just lost to Jacksonville. The Giants have been melting for the last month and Washington is good, but we all think the Cinderella story is coming to an end soon. A lot of experts point to Tampa Bay as being a tiger waiting to pounce and that may be true, but that offense has not shown me any reason to put them in the top 10. So, I ask you, why does everyone hate Minnesota so much? Will they win a Super Bowl? Most likely not. Can they make it to the championship game in a very weak NFC? I believe so.
Can Mike Tomlin Avoid a Losing Season?
In the preseason, I wrote about how this would be the first year a Mike Tomlin lead team would see a losing record. Up until 2 weeks ago I felt very safe in that prediction. Now I am not so sure. The Steelers were dreadful without TJ Watt, but now that he is back, they’ve found new life. Kenny Pickett looks like an average quarterback and has Pittsburgh winning games they should. He won’t win a shootout or bring you back from down 3 scores in the second half, but he has shown he can manage this offense well enough to put tick marks in the “W” column. Now they face a Ravens team without Lamar Jackson at home with a chance to take their record to 6-7. If they can win this game, their next opponent is the lowly Carolina Panthers. We could all wake up on December 19th to a .500 Steelers team.
Bills-Jets Rematch
In the first matchup between these two teams, Josh Allen threw 2 interceptions and had a QBR of 51.9. He had to rely heavily on his legs to make up for the lack of production he had through the air. The Jets won that game 20-17. Now the Jets head to Buffalo in a game I have to think the Bills have had circled since early November. Buffalo will be without Von Miller, their star defensive end who has proved vital to their ability to win games. With Von Miller on the field, the Bills are 2nd in pass defense DVOA. His presence will be sorely missed, maybe paving the way for a Mike White bounce back game.
What Will Brock Purdy Look Like?
Purdy has now had a full week with the first team reps. He was thrown into the fire last week against Miami and performed admirably. He did enough to keep the lead, the only thing you can ask of a back up thrust into a game. Now with a week to prepare, how will he and this 49ers offense look? This defense is good enough to keep San Francisco in every game, but Purdy obviously has to put points on the board. It’s a tough first test as he faces a stout Buccaneers defense. If you’re a 49ers fan, you either want him to be really good or really bad. I don’t think I could take another “game manager” style quarterback on the roster who leads you to the playoffs and wins a game or two. It would only lead to more drama this offseason regarding who should be the starter in 2023.
Best Bet
Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 / Philadelphia Eagles -1 (*Teaser)
Just going with one bet today. We’re hoping two of the best teams in the league pull through for us so we can start the winning streak.