NFL Week 17 Biggest Games, Best Bet and FanDuel Lineup
Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens
The best game on today’s slate features the Dolphins heading to Baltimore for a matchup with a lot of playoff implications. A win for Miami and they secure the one seed and all that comes with it. All they would have to do is beat Buffalo at home next weekend and it would be theirs. Now, beating Baltimore and Buffalo in back to back weeks is easier said than done, but at least they control their own destiny.
Baltimore is coming off a massive win over San Francisco on the road last weekend. They did get very lucky with turnovers as two of Brock Purdy’s four interceptions were batted balls that bounced up perfectly to be picked off. A win is a win though, so I might have to concede on my stance that Baltimore isn’t as good as everyone thinks. They’re immediately being tested again with a tough Miami offense. It looks like Zay Flowers will be playing, but the loss of Keaton Mitchell was evident. Edwards and Hill ran for 56 yards on 19 carries (3 YPC) in his absence. If Baltimore wins today, it will be because either (or both) of those guys had a big day. The Ravens’ passing attack needs a balanced run game in order to succeed. I don’t think they will get it though as Miami only allows 3.7 YPC (6th in the league). I’m calling a 31-27 Miami win.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Bengals hate the Chiefs and the Chiefs hate the Bengals. It’s one of the biggest non-division rivalries in the NFL. Cincinnati will obviously be without Joe Burrow, but I don’t think that stops them from competing at a high level. Hate is the best motivator there is.
The Chiefs’ offense has looked like hot garbage all year long and if they’re going to have any hope of winning even one playoff game, they need to find a couple things that work. I’m not expecting the offense to be fixed. That would be too big an ask in three short weeks. I just want to see some drives that last longer than three plays. No more of the wildcat formations or back-to-back TE screens. “Keep it simple, stupid” is a known phrase for a reason. Sometimes the best plan of action is the easiest one. I think Kansas City wins, but in another ugly, down to the wire game. Chiefs 21 Bengals 17.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers can lock up the NFC South with a win today over the Saints. I’ve found myself rooting for Tampa Bay hard this year. Baker has had his problems in the past, but it seems like this year he’s just playing football. No commercials, no bad press conferences. Just him and the gridiron. That mentality has led to the best year of his career. He’s likely to throw for over 4,000 yards and at least 30 touchdowns (both numbers would be career best). If he can lead this team to 10 wins, with a team only a year removed from going 8-9 with Tom Brady, it would go a long way towards getting him that contract extension he wants.
After I just spent a paragraph hyping Baker up, I’m sure he’s going to have a stinker of a game today. New Orleans is top 10 in every passing defense category but bottom 10 in every rush defense category. Even though I like Baker, I think Rachaad White is the key to this game. I like him to have a monster day enroute to a 28-17 Buccaneers win.
Rashee Rice Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DK)
The Chiefs are indeed simplifying the playbook ahead of the matchup against Cincinnati today. There will be fewer plays and personnel packages meaning a lot of the targets will be flowing towards Rice, the only wide receiver Mahomes has been able to count on this season. I looked at Kelce props as well, but Rice’s are smaller and cheaper. The Bengals defense is perfect to try and get the playbook right as they are 26th in defensive DVOA and dead last at net yards per pass attempt. Rice should have a field day.
QB – Justin Fields – $8,200
RB – Chuba Hubbard – $6,800
RB – Alvin Kamara – $7,500
WR – DJ Moore – $7,500
WR – Zay Flowers – $6,300
WR – DeAndre Hopkins – $6,700
TE – Trey McBride – $6,800
FLEX – Javonte Williams – $6,500
DEF – Denver Broncos – $3,700