NFL Week 2 Thursday Night Football Preview: Dolphins vs Bills
The NFL has given us another great Thursday Night Football matchup. This time a divisional matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Miami Dolphins.
The Bills are coming off a home win over the Cardinals last Sunday. If they’re going to make it two in a row, Buffalo needs to find a run game. James Cook rushed the ball 19 times but only for 71 yards. That’s a rate of 3.7 YPC. Allen chipped in 40 of his own rushing yards on 9 carries, with two of those going for touchdowns. Josh Allen being the entire offense is what the Bills got away from down the stretch last year on their way to a 5-game winning streak and a sneak in playoff berth. Buffalo’s offense did have the second-best EPA per play last week at +0.21, but how sustainable is that play style?
I’m interested to see how this Buffalo defense tries to stop Miami’s weapons. Miami’s offensive line was graded 7th overall in Week 1 (per PFF). Tua doesn’t take long to throw, but if he has as much time as he wants these weapons are going to feast. Hill and Waddle are arguably the best 1-2 wide receiver tandem in the league. Rousseau must get to Tua as much as he did Kyler to stop this air attack.
Speaking of the Miami offense, they were absolutely non-existent for 43 minutes against Jacksonville last week. Tonight, they will be without Raheem Mostert and possibly Devon Achane. Not having Mostert doesn’t concern me as much as Achane. Even though Achane didn’t have a great day on the ground Sunday, he still had 7 catches for 76 yards. He’s a clear stud and if he’s limited at all it could be bad news for Miami. Buffalo will be without their All-Pro cornerback, Taron Johnson, giving Hill and Waddle an easier time in the secondary. This could be the break Miami needed if their star running back has a reduced snap count.
Miami obviously needs to slow down Josh Allen, but that’s easier said than done. There really isn’t a formula for it either. Limiting his explosiveness in the running game is where I’d start. The Dolphins can’t allow him to pick up 3rd and 7s on the ground. Those are defensive morale busters. Keep him in the pocket and pray he can’t find a receiver before your defensive line can get home. I know it’s not a great plan, but some guys are so much of a wild card that trying to contain him is better than trying to stop one or two things.
Official Pick
Buffalo Bills 28 – Miami Dolphins 24
Both defenses have major holes, but Buffalo has more ways to beat you offensively, especially with Miami having a limited Achane.
Player Prop
I love Keon Coleman over 42.5 receiving yards (-113 FD). Miami’s offense will be a lot better in Week 2. Their stars won’t have that arrest in the back of their minds. Achane’s injury hurts, but the Bills are without Johnson too. I think Mike McDaniel rebounds well at home. Now, you might be thinking why does this matter. If Miami can put up points, Buffalo will have to keep moving the ball. Coleman looked good last Sunday and lead the Bills in receiving yards. He also had two more targets than anyone else on the Bills offense. I think Allen knows he has his next good receiver and looks his way early and often.