NFL Week 4 Biggest Games, Gambling Picks and FanDuel Lineup
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Obviously, this game is the biggest and best game on the Sunday slate. Miami’s offense looks like one of the fastest we’ve ever seen. Josh Allen and the Bills have won their last two games by a combined score of 75-13, so their offense has been humming as well. Miami’s offense is better, but Buffalo has a larger edge on the defensive side of the ball. I don’t think they’ll be able to slow down Tua and Co. though, as I’d be shocked if both of these teams don’t put up at least 24 points apiece.
Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears
Yes, both of these teams are horrible, and both currently sit at 0-3. The storylines that will come out of this game depending on the result will lead talk shows on Monday morning. If the Bears fall to 0-4 in a year in which a lot of people thought they could win the division, what does that mean for Justin Fields and Matt Eberflus? Similarly, the Broncos were also thought to be a team that makes noise in the AFC West and should be a potential Wild Card team. Dropping to 0-4 with a loss against the worst team in the NFL would be the biggest disaster to start a regular season in recent memory. These two teams are trainwrecks, but we can’t seem to take our eyes off them.
New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys
Word on the street is bad news might be coming out of Patriots camp regarding Mac Jones if things don’t turn around. This couldn’t have come at a worse time for Jones as he needs to have a great game, but he has to do it against the Cowboys defense. If their offense looks anemic again, could it be time for Bailey Zappe? Conversely, Dak Prescott looked like his old self again last week when he threw a back breaking fourth quarter interception in the RedZone. The Cowboys greatly missed their star corner, Trevon Diggs, but now have had a full week to gameplan without him in the lineup. It will be interesting to see how both offenses look in this matchup.
Seattle Seahawks -1.5 @ New York Giants
You could have bet the Seahawks as 1.5-point underdogs instead of favorites earlier in the week, but since this blog is posted Sunday mornings, we don’t think it’s fair to give that number. Regardless, we still like it at 1.5 since NFL games rarely end on 1 or in a tie, so if you waited until now, you haven’t lost much value. Daniel Jones and the Giants’ offense have looked abysmal in 10 of 12 quarters to start the football season. The Seahawks defense hasn’t looked much better, but their defense isn’t what we’re betting on in this game. Seattle’s offense has put up 37 points in the last two weeks and we don’t see any reason why that would slow down Monday night. I don’t believe the Giants can keep up with the Seahawks in this game.
Jaguars -3 vs Atlanta Falcons (London)
Rookie quarterbacks (Ridder basically is) do terrible in London. I have to believe Ridder will do even worse because he doesn’t know how to throw and Arthur Smith doesn’t trust him to do it anyway. If the Falcons can’t run the ball, their offense is nonexistent as we saw last week against Detroit. The Jaguars run defense DVOA is 4th best in the league and they’re 6th best in yards per attempt. Their secondary is iffy, but the Falcons don’t have the tools to take advantage of that. The Jaguars offense should have no trouble scoring, so I feel comfortable here giving 3 points.
Tee Higgins Over 4.5 Receptions (-130 DK)
We’re paying a little juice for this one, but it will be worth it. In three games this year, Tee Higgins has 28 targets and only 10 catches. The Bengals have been force feeding him the ball, but he hasn’t gotten going yet. The Tennessee Titans’ secondary is here to fix that. The Titans are 26th in pass defense DVOA, while being 3rd in rush defense DVOA. Joe Mixon won’t be able to run the ball effectively and Joe Burrow will be forced to pass. After a few bad drops last week, I think Cincinnati tries to get Higgins the ball even more to build his confidence. This bet might cash in the first half.
Baltimore Ravens +8 / Kansas City Chiefs -2.5
This is our Teaser of the Week. Reports coming out of Cleveland say Deshaun Watson hasn’t thrown all week and is questionable leading up to the Ravens game. I think he’ll play or this would have been a much bigger story, but how good he is a different question. With Lamar Jackson playing, the Ravens would be 7-1 ATS against Cleveland catching 8 points. These division games are usually low scoring and close. The Browns have a top 3 defense, but if anyone knows how to beat it, it’s Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.
There isn’t much analysis that goes into putting Kansas City in the teaser at -2.5. Do we really think Zach Wilson is going to put up many points against this Chiefs defense? They aren’t spectacular, but this defense is easily one of the best Mahomes has had in his career. On the flip side, the Jets won’t be able to stop the three-headed monster of Reid, Mahomes and Kelce. Especially since Taylor Swift will be in the stands again.
FanDuel Lineup of the Week
We’re going all in on big name wide receivers this week. Especially ones that will be involved in the firework show that is Miami at Buffalo.
QB – Tua Tagovailoa – $8,000
RB – Tony Jones Jr. – $4,900
RB – Samaje Perine – $5,100
WR – Stefon Diggs – $8,700
WR – Robert Woods – $5,300
WR – Tyreek Hill – $9,600
TE – Donald Parham Jr. – $4,900
FLEX – Justin Jefferson – $9,400
D/ST – Denver Broncos – $3,900