NFL Week 5 Biggest Games, Gambling Picks and FanDuel Lineup
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers
This is the biggest game of the week by far. Micah Parsons and this Dallas defense have been demoralizing opponents (besides the Cardinals?). The 49ers offense is unlike anything they’ve seen so far though. I’m not sure any of the skill position players for the Patriots, Jets, Cardinals and Giants would even make the 49ers roster. The Dallas defense will definitely have their hands full, and I think we’re going to see the loss of Trevon Diggs be much more apparent this week.
Similarly, Dallas is the best defense Brock Purdy has played this season. Everyone wants to crown Purdy the same way they crowned Jimmy Garoppolo. “He’s not elite, but he’s a winner”. That’s most analyst’s take on the 49ers quarterback. He can’t do enough to win the game himself, but he doesn’t make mistakes and that’s something most teams wish their quarterback did. The 49ers have knocked Dallas out of the playoffs the last two years, so we know Dallas will be playing in a higher gear. There’s just something about these big brother, little brother matchups though. For some reason, the little brother never seems to win one.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams
Cooper Kupp is expected to make his season debut in this matchup. He will likely be on a limited snap count, but we’ll finally get a look at what he and Puka Nacua on the field at the same time looks like. The Eagles secondary has been a problem for them all year and the Rams passing game has been much more effective than people thought it would be before the season started. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles haven’t looked in sync all year. They were taken to overtime by a Commanders team that just lost to the Bears by 20 on Thursday Night Football. Maybe they’re coasting through the regular season and trying to save as much as they can for the big games and the playoffs. I can’t blame them for that, but this Rams team is good and if Philadelphia plays like they did last week, they’re going to put the first digit in their loss column.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Everything about the Steelers’ offense has been garbage so far this season. People are trying to find someone to blame, but it should be equally shared between all parties. Pickett has been terrible compared to what he showed in the preseason. Matt Canada’s ability to call plays is no better than the drunk at the local Steelers dive bar. Even the weapons room hasn’t been as dangerous as they were bragging about in the offseason. None of this will matter though if they get a win against one of their division rivals, the Baltimore Ravens. Lamar Jackson hasn’t played Pittsburgh since 2021 and his stats against them aren’t great. In 3 starts, he has 4 passing touchdowns and 6 interceptions. I have a strong feeling the Steelers defense will show out this game, so the winner will be decided on the other side of the ball. Pickett and Canada vs Smith and Macdonald. A battle for the ages.
Cincinnati Bengals/Arizona Cardinals Under 45
This is my favorite bet of the week. I don’t understand how this number is so high and also how it’s climbed from 44 to 45. Here’s what we know. Joe Burrow is playing injured and closely resembles Matt Ryan on the Colts last year. He’s a statue in the pocket. His ability to escape the pocket is gone and his arm strength is greatly limited. The Bengals will also be without one of their star wideouts, Tee Higgins. Their defense knows they can’t afford to drop this game. They’ll have to step up, similar to how they did in the Los Angeles Rams game where they intercepted Matthew Stafford twice and sacked him six times. On the flip side, the Cardinals have been better than expected, but still aren’t a top 15 team. I think this is a low scoring, ugly affair.
Indianapolis Colts +2.5 @ Tennessee Titans
The Titans are coming off a blowout victory over the Cincinnati Bengals and the Colts are coming off a close, overtime loss to the Rams. I believe both scenarios help us. In the last 5 seasons, teams coming off an overtime loss are 41-27-1 ATS in their next game. This leads me to believe the public is overvaluing the importance of overtime. The general knowledge is teams are more tired after an overtime game. After seeing this number, I think it’s more likely they are looking for someone to take revenge on.
The Titans in the Vrabel era are 14-18 ATS coming off a win and now playing as the favorite. Similar to the Steelers, the Titans excel at being underdogs. They have won outright as dogs and cost me money more times than I can count. They can be beaten though if they’re playing as favorites. For whatever reason, they don’t play as hard if the chip on their shoulder isn’t there. I’ll be sprinkling the money line in this game as well, but for the purposes of the blog’s picks, I’ll stick with catching 2.5 points.
We don’t have many picks this week. There was a lot of line movement on games we like, but since this blog is posted on Sundays, it doesn’t do much good to tell you what we liked earlier in the week. For a little bonus though, if you look at next week’s odds, we love San Francisco -3 @ Cleveland and Seattle +1.5 @ Cincinnati. We think both of those lines will move drastically by this time next week. The 49ers should be closer to 5-5.5 favorites and the Seahawks should actually be favored by 1.5 points in their game, not underdogs.
Our FanDuel lineups have cooled off after our scorching start in the first two weeks. We’re leaning on Mahomes and Kelce to get us back on track. Mahomes averages over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns after games he had 2 or more turnovers. He should shred the Vikings’ defense.
QB – Patrick Mahomes $9,200
RB – Breece Hall $6,500
RB – De’Von Achane $7,500
WR – Tutu Atwell $5,800
WR – Nick Westbrook-Ikhine $5,500
WR – Michael Pittman $6,600
TE – Travis Kelce $8,789
FLEX – Zay Flowers $5,900
DEF – Saints $4,000