NFL Week 7 Storylines and Best Bets
The 49ers Trade for CMAC
My instant reaction was how weird this deal is. A smart organization like the 49ers do not waste a ton of draft capital and money on a beaten-down running back who is always 1 play away from missing another 2 years. I know I said Carolina needs to trade McCaffrey, but I figured a less well-run organization like Chicago or Arizona would be the ones calling. This move will come back to bite San Francisco in a year or so when they need to retain all their young defensive talent and have a 12 million dollar running back on the books. However, if he is a major reason why they win a Super Bowl this year it will have all been worth it so what do I know.
Dak’s Return for Dallas
Cooper Rush did everything you hope a backup quarterback will do if called upon. He was aided by an easy schedule and a defense playing lights out, but he led Dallas to a 3-1 record. Now Dak is back against a bad Detroit Lions defense. He doesn’t need to play amazing. Rush never played a great game; he just didn’t make mistakes until the Philadelphia game. But with how crazy the sports media and Dallas fans are, if Dak comes out and lays an egg everyone will be calling for Rush to start again. It’s an immense amount of pressure for Prescott to have in his first game back from injury, but it’s the reality of the situation unfortunately.
Can the Packers and Buccaneers Get Back on Track?
If you would’ve told me before the season Green Bay and Tampa Bay would be .500 going into Week 7 and look as bad as they have I wouldn’t have believed you. The Packers offense is non-existent, and the Buccaneers offensive line might as well not even be on the field right now. The vaunted Packers defense everyone thought would be amazing before the season started has been a bottom tier squad. The good news for both of these teams is they get to play 2 of the 5 worst teams in the NFL in Week 7. Rodgers and Brady need to come out and dominate or their last season could be in jeopardy.
Straight Bets
New York Giants +3.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars -121
This is the biggest “Vegas trap” line of all time. I didn’t want to bet this all week, but once it went to 3.5, I had to. There are only a few teams Jacksonville should be a 3+ point favorite against and one of them isn’t the Giants. Because of how weird this line is, the Jaguars will probably win by 2 touchdowns, but I can’t resist taking the number here.
Kansas City -1 @ San Francisco 49ers -110
The Chiefs are 7-1 SU after a loss since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback. The 49ers did just acquire Christian McCaffrey in a head-scratcher of a trade, but he probably won’t see more than a few snaps. San Francisco also gets Nick Bosa and Trent Williams back from injury, 2 huge keys to their offensive and defensive schemes. I just don’t think the 49ers offense does enough to keep up with Kansas City though. 7 times Mahomes has thrown for 2+ interceptions in a game like last week. The following week the Chiefs average 33 points per game, scoring 40+ in 4 of them. When Mahomes makes mistakes, he always comes back with a vengeance. That should remain the case on Sunday.
Player Props
Derrick Henry Over 89.5 Rushing Yards -115
Since Derrick Henry cemented his role as lead back for Tennessee at the beginning of the 2018 season, he has been the Colt killer. Henry has rushed for 90+ yards in 6 of his 9 games against Indianapolis. The Colts had a much better offensive game last week against the Jaguars, but now they’re getting Taylor back and they intend to use him. This game will be won in the trenches, meaning Henry will have a lot of chances to break this total again.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ATTD +145
Listen, Dallas’ defense has been playing great, but I know Dan Campbell has the Lions ready to go after a bye. When a starting quarterback comes back, the rest of the team doesn’t try as hard. Dak is back and that subconsciously tells every Dallas player they don’t need to play at the top of their game like they did when Cooper Rush was under center. Dak can now help cover up some of the errors. This allows guys like St. Brown to shine. St. Brown is a great run after the catch receiver and Ben Johnson draws up a lot of plays to get him in space. I don’t think Detroit wins this game, but I do think St. Brown finds his way into the endzone at some point.
Breece Hall Over 2.5 Receptions -105
Breece Hall has been playing more and more lately. In the first three weeks, he didn’t play more than 51% of the snaps in a game. Week 4 and on have been a different story. That percentage has skyrocketed to 66%, 69%, 67%. He has had 2 receptions in each of those three games, but this is the week I think he breaks that barrier and hits 3+. The Broncos have a stout defense and the number one secondary per PFF. Zach Wilson won’t be able to find open receivers and will be forced to dump off to his running back a lot. Wilson also won’t have a lot of time in the pocket, as Denver’s pass rush is a top 5 squad while the Jets’ offensive line is the exact opposite. I think we can take advantage of an easy line here.
Teasers
Baltimore Ravens -.5 / Las Vegas Raiders -1
The Ravens are a rough team to bet on right now. They’ve already been in a couple of our teasers and lost both times. We’re giving them another chance though this weekend against an inferior Cleveland team. The Ravens are getting Rashod Bateman back, but may be without Mark Andrews. If Andrews can’t go, I don’t like this bet, but right now it’s trending toward him playing. The Dobbins injury doesn’t phase me as Kenyan Drake has been as good, if not better anyway. Calling anything a must-win in Week 7 seems wrong, but the Ravens need this game to get back on track. They’ve found a lot of different ways to lose games already this year leading them to an average 3-3 record. They are better than their record says and will show it Sunday.
Both the Texans and Raiders are coming off a bye, so they cancel each other out in that advantage category. Las Vegas might be the best 1-4 team of all time. They’re 6th in the league in scoring offense. They just need their defense to step up. The Texans are the perfect “get right” game. The best part of the Raiders defense is their ability to stop the run, currently ranked 14th per PFF. Davis Mills can’t get anything going without a run game. If the Raiders can limit Dameon Pierce to 15 attempts and 50 yards, they should win easily.