NFL Week 9 Storylines and Best Bets

Storylines

Clash of the Underachievers

Last week we had the clash of the overachievers in the New York Giants facing the Seattle Seahawks. Now we have the clash of the underachievers with the Los Angeles Rams heading to Tampa Bay. Cooper Kupp is a little banged up, which doesn’t bode well for the Rams as he is their entire offense. In all honesty, I don’t know what to expect from this game. I have thought Tom Brady would turn the Buccaneers offense around for weeks. Only to be force fed bad losses against Carolina and Baltimore. If they can’t find a way to beat Los Angeles this week, they would be 3-6 with matchups still coming against Seattle, San Francisco and Cincinnati. Everyone keeps saying if the Buccaneers can get to 8-9 they will still win their division and get into the playoffs. It’s possible, but the Falcons are 4-4 and still have games left against Carolina, Chicago, Washington and Pittsburgh. The week 18 matchup between Tampa Bay and Atlanta could decide the division. 

Kirk Cousins Returns to Washington

This is Kirk’s first game back in Washington since he left in the 2018 season. Kirk was emotional when he left, writing a letter to the fans and thanking them and the Commanders for all they had done for him. Cousins had a record of 26-30-1 as a Commander, throwing for 16,206 yards, 99 touchdowns and 55 interceptions in his 6 seasons there. 

Minnesota is favored to win this game, but Taylor Heinicke could spoil the big return for Kirk. The Vikings have been on a hot streak recently, owning a record of 6-1 and a 3-game lead on the NFC North. If you’ve watched a Vikings game in the last few years, you know this is the perfect spot for them to come out flat and lose. Who knows why, but Minnesota is a team that will let you down as soon as you start to have a little faith in them.

Best Bets

Player Prop of the Week

Aaron Jones Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Aaron Jones just shredded the Buffalo Bills for 143 yards on only 20 carries. Buffalo is 5th in rush defense DVOA and Aaron made them look like a DII squad. Now Jones goes up against a much easier opponent, the Detroit Lions who are ranked 30th in rush defense DVOA. Aaron is Green Bay’s best player and Mike LaFluer might finally be starting to realize it. The Packers have to have this win. They will run the ball right down the Lions’ throat all game long. Hell, even if they are losing they will still run the ball, as they showed us last week against the Bills. Jones is an electric runner, capable of breaking off 20+ rushes at any point. This should be an easy bet to cash. 

Teaser of the Week

New England Patriots pk / Cincinnati Bengals -1 (-120)

The Patriots are playing the Colt who will be without Jonathan Taylor again. Sam Ehlinger will be getting his second start and we know how well Bill Belichick does against rookie quarterbacks, especially quarterbacks in their first few starts. Mac Jones has been bad since he came back from injury which scares me, but all he has to do is not make mistakes. Just don’t throw any pick 6s and the Colts probably won’t get their score to the double digits. 

Cincinnati is coming off a horrible loss in Cleveland last week. Ja’Marr Chase wasn’t available, and their offense looked out of sync the entire game. Now the Bengals have had a full week to get a feel for what they want to do without Chase on the field. The Panthers are coming off a gut-wrenching loss. Teams are 5-20 SU when they’re 6.5+ point dogs and coming off an overtime game. I know we need the Bengals to cover and not just win, but games only land on 1 around 4% of the time. I’ll take my chances. 

Straight Bets of the Week

Seattle Seahawks / Arizona Cardinals Over 48.5 (-115)

I am a little surprised this line isn’t somewhere around 50.5 right now. It was bet up from 48.5 to 50.5 earlier in the week but has now been bet back down. Maybe there is something I am missing, but I think there will be a lot of points scored in Arizona on Sunday. Seattle and Arizona are 26th and 30th in points allowed per game. The over is hitting in 57% of Arizona home games since Kyler Murray joined the team. It’s not much of an edge, but with the way Seattle has been scoring and how much better Arizona looks since Deandre Hopkins returned, I think we have a good shot. Seattle has scored 31 ppg since week 3 and 39 ppg in their 3 games in a dome this season. Meanwhile, Arizona has put up 42 and 26 points in the two games that Hopkins has played this year, which would be their highest and 3rd highest scores of the year.

Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-114)

I am not ready to give up on Las Vegas yet. They still have a very good quarterback, a top wide receiver, one of the best running backs in the league and a great edge rusher. They laid an egg in New Orleans last week, no doubt about it. However, teams that scored <10 points in their previous game, but average >23.5 PPG typically rebound well, covering at a clip of 60% in their next game. The Jaguars are another story like the Detroit Lions. They were very fun to watch the first few games of the season but have become more and more sad as the season progresses. The long bright spot for Jacksonville is Travis Etienne. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, Las Vegas only allows 4.1 YPC, good for 5th best in the league. I like Las Vegas to get back on track here. 

Kansas City Chiefs / Tennessee Titans Over 9.5 1Q (-115)

Kansas City has scored 7 or more points in the 1st quarter of each of their games off a bye in the Mahomes era. Something about having 2 weeks to create new plays for an opponent makes Andy Reid unbeatable. Derrick Henry of the Titans is also getting going lately. He’s coming off a huge game against Houston where he ran for 200+ yards. All we need is a touchdown and field goal. Kansas City feels like a lock for at least a touchdown and maybe more. If they don’t get us past 9 alone, I’m confident Derrick Henry can carry the Titans to at least field goal range. If Ryan Tannehill ends up playing in this game, it is an obvious upgrade over rookie Malik Willis. The Titans clearly do not trust Willis yet as he only threw the ball 10 times in his first career start last week. If Tannehill goes, we like this bet even more.