Our NFL Week 4 Breakdown and Predictions
Week 4 Storylines
Who stays winless and who remains undefeated?
The Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins are the last remaining undefeated teams. If you have read any of our blogs up to this point, you know we are high on the Eagles and very low on the Dolphins. The market is telling us Miami will get its first loss of the season on Thursday night against Cincinnati. The line opened at Cincinnati -1.5 and has moved all the way to Cincinnati -4. After a tiring, hot, grind-it-out game against Buffalo last Sunday and now having to go on the road on a short week, we can’t say we disagree with the line movement. Miami’s time with a 0 in the L column might have come to an end. Philadelphia on the other hand has an easier road to continuing their winning streak. They are going against a red-hot Jaguars squad, but they are at home and unless Jacksonville really is a top 10-12 team, they have to come back down to earth at some point. Our money is on Philadelphia to come out of Week 4 as the lone undefeated club.
Now for the teams who can’t seem to buy a win. The Texans and Raiders are both playing at home against the Chargers and Broncos. All of Los Angeles’ injuries couldn’t have come at a better time for Houston. Justin Herbert still looks banged up and they will now be without Joey Bosa and Rashan Slater for the foreseeable future. A Houston upset would be somewhat shocking since it would send a highly regarded Chargers team to 1-3, but with their current injuries, crazier things have happened in the NFL. For Carr and the Raiders, their promising offseason has quickly turned into a terrible start. Pro Football Focus has their offense ranked 21st and their defense ranked 22nd. They can’t pass block or run block and they’re not getting much pressure on the opposing quarterback. They desperately need a win against Denver this week, but with the way Denver’s defense has been playing, we don’t think they’ll get it. It will be an 0-4 start for Las Vegas and an early elimination from playoff contention.
Can Cooper Rush Keep Winning?
All he does is win. I thought my Dallas Cowboys not to make the playoffs future was a lock after Dak went down with an injury Week 1. That couldn’t have been farther from the truth. Cooper Rush (and let’s be honest, Micah Parsons) has kept the Cowboys in playoff contention. They beat a division rival on Monday night and have another shot at a division foe Sunday. Cooper Rush isn’t doing anything spectacular; he’s just not making mistakes. That’s about all you can ask for from your backup when he’s called upon. If Rush can keep it going and remain undefeated, Dallas making the playoffs is still very much on the table.
Gambling Section YTD: 9-8 / -.14 Units
Prop of the Week
LV Raiders Team Total U 23.5 vs Denver Broncos
Denver’s defense has been monstrous this year. They rank 6th overall and 3rd in pressure by PFF. They have allowed just 12 ppg to date this year. In fairness, two of the offenses they have played are the Seahawks and the Texans. However, the Raiders’ offense that was supposed to be much improved with the addition of Devante Adams has only averaged 21 ppg thus far. They have played the Chargers, Cardinals and Titans. The Chargers when fully healthy (they were week 1) have a very good defense and Las Vegas only put up 19 points. The Cardinals and Titans rank 31st and 29th in ppg allowed. The Raiders have not scored more than 23 points in a game this season, and the line is 23.5 against this great Denver defense? It doesn’t make sense, take advantage of it.
Straight Bets
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 45.5
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ defense is the only thing keeping this team afloat. Tom Brady has looked every bit of 45 years old. Tampa Bay’s offensive line is failing in giving him time to throw resulting in pressures on 15% of his drop backs. Mike Evans is back this week, but Mike Evans played in Weeks 1 and 2 and the Buccaneers didn’t score more than 20 points in either game. Kansas City’s offense has also been lacking since Week 1. Against the Chargers in Week 2 they managed 20 offensive points and on the road in Indianapolis last week they only scored 17. The Buccaneers defense will be the best defense the Chiefs have faced so far and they’re doing it in a hostile environment on Sunday night.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans Over 44
Last week we took the Texans and Bears under knowing how awful they are on the road. It didn’t pan out as a lot of turnovers gave both teams good field position multiple times. This week however, we are on the over. Justin Herbert probably shouldn’t have played last week. Well now he has another whole week to recover, and he needs to get this offense back on track. Austin Ekeler will finally have a breakout game.
The Texans play a lot better at home in the Davis Mills era, averaging an extra 8 points per game compared to on the road. With Bosa being out, Mills will have more time in the pocket to make the right throws. Last year the Texans put up 41 on the Chargers so they know how to score on them. We’ll take 41, but a score of 21-24 will suffice as well.
Tennessee Titans +3.5 @ Indianapolis Colts
Since Andrew Luck left the Colts before the 2019 season, Tennessee is 3-0 playing in Indianapolis with an average win of 12 points. We can all agree the Titans desperately miss AJ Brown and Harold Landry. However, Derrick Henry finally started to look like his old self last week and Tannehill recovered from his ugly performance against Buffalo. Henry looking good is bad news for Indy, as the last 6 meetings against the Colts he has rushed for 115 yards per game. Indianapolis is coming off a monster win against Kansas City. They needed it to stay relevant in the playoff and division winner discussion, but they only mustered 20 points. If Harrison Butker plays in that game, Kansas City probably wins 23-20. Either way you look at it, neither of these teams really know how to put the ball in the endzone. When you have 2 below average offenses and you can catch 3 and the hook in a division game, it is a no brainer. If you’re interested in a trendy stat for this matchup, teams off a win catching 3.5 points in a division road game are 16-7 ATS.
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions Under 48
Detroit’s offense is averaging 31.7 points per game. With a powerful squad like that, under bets are usually not the play. The difference is the Lions will be without their best wide receiver and top running back. Their 2 most important offensive weapons won’t be on the field Sunday, drastically hurting their chances at putting up a lot of points. Detroit’s defense has been an issue this year, but I don’t think Seattle will be able to take advantage of it the way Philadelphia and Minnesota did. They’re offense isn’t nearly as good as those two. If either team scores more than 24 in this game, I’ll be shocked.