Our Week 5 Thoughts, Reactions and Recap

11 Oct, 2022

Our Week 5 Thoughts, Reactions and Recap

What has happened to Russell Wilson?

This game was played on Thursday night, which after a long NFL Sunday can seem like ages ago. We’ll be revisiting that horrific night to shed some light on who Russell Wilson might actually be as a quarterback. 

Legion of Boom, ever heard of them? If you started watching football in the last few years you might not have. It was the nickname given to Seattle’s defense from 2012-2015(ish) because they were hard hitters and an impossible squad to score on. For 4 seasons in a row, they were the number one scoring defense. They led Seattle to 2 Super Bowl appearances, winning 1 of them. Is it possible they were the reason for Russell’s success and not his own play? 

Every highlight you watch on your phone is offensive. Defensive highlights rarely make it to Twitter or SportsCenter. Because of this, most of Seattle’s success in the early to mid 2010s has been incorrectly attributed to Wilson. What we are seeing now from Wilson might be more of what he actually is as a player. He is likely better than what we have seen so far in 2022, but how much is the question. Below are his record splits and season finishes with and without a top 3 scoring defense:

56-23-1 regular season record w/ a top 3 scoring defense

48-30 regular season record w/o a top 3 scoring defense

8-4 playoff record with a top 3 scoring defense

1-3 playoff record w/o a top 3 scoring defense

As you can see, much more sustained success in the playoffs and a winning percentage 10% higher in the regular season. Russell has always put up good numbers in the regular season. It’s the postseason where true colors and abilities are shown and Wilson has fallen flat. 20% of his playoff games have seen him throw multiple interceptions. In 25% of his games, Russell has failed to score >20 points. He even won a playoff game against Aaron Rodgers while throwing 4 interceptions. For Christ’s sake, he’s thrown for <187 yards in the playoffs more times than >300. Much of Seattle’s failures during Wilson’s time there are given to Pete Carrol and other members of the team, even with Russell’s poor performances.

Long story short, if Denver can’t find a way to remain a top scoring defense, it might be a long career for Russell in the orange and blue.

All of America Needs to Slow Down on the Jacksonville Hype

The Jaguars laid one of the biggest eggs of the season against Houston on Sunday, getting beat by a score of 13-6. One of our gambling picks this week was Jacksonville -1 in a 6-point teaser. Our handicap was correct. We knew how awful the Texans play on the road, only averaging 12.5 points. Houston only scored 13, but Lawrence and the Jaguars couldn’t be bothered to even put up 1 touchdown. 

This is now the second week in a row Jacksonville’s offense has been objectively bad. Last week they had 6 turnovers. It was a bad weather game, but still, six turnovers in any game is bush league play. Now in Week 5 they only score 6 points against a Houston Texans defense on the lowest rung of the NFL tier ladder. The Texans run defense ranked 29th before this game kicked off. With how well Etienne and Robinson have played so far this year, one would have thought the key to winning this game would be through their legs. That’s not how it unfolded. Besides a 30-yard rush by Robinson, the run game was nonexistent for the Jaguars. Robinson carried it 10 times at a clip of 2.7 YPC. 

This Jacksonville team still has the ability to be in most games and be an exciting team to watch. But before Week 4, the Jaguars were the “trendiest” division winner future bet. It is still possible, but after losing a “gimme” game to one of, if not the worst team in the league, they shouldn’t be a favorite in many games, let alone a division.

Slow Down on the Detroit Hype as Well

Detroit is the most liked 1-4 team of all time. Watching all the points they put up through 4 weeks made us forget they still only have 1 win and kept that lone win after a miserable performance in New England on Sunday. The Lions failed to register a single point, losing to Bailey Zappe and the Patriots by a final score of 0-28. What’s crazy is New England isn’t even the best defense they’ve played all year. 

This could have just been an off day for Goff and the Patriots. Bill has had his number his entire career, now 3-0 against Jared. This offense was destined to come back down to earth after 4 games in which they’re scoring output didn’t match their actual consistent capabilities. For example, through 4 weeks, Detroit was averaging a league-leading 6.5 yards/play. Last season, Kansas led the league in this category with a number of 6.1. Is Detroit’s offense better than Kansas City’s? 

The Lions were also scoring touchdowns once they got in the redzone at a clip of 88.24%. This isn’t sustainable and should have been a clear red-flag; the offense was due for some major regression. We don’t think the Lions are dead, although their record of 1-4 almost guarantees they don’t make the playoffs, especially with games still ahead against Green Bay twice, Dallas and Buffalo. Detroit has a lot of the pieces in place, but they still need 1 or 2 more successful drafts before we can really start taking them seriously.

San Francisco, Buffalo and New York “Dog-Walked” Their Opponents

The most surprising of that trio is obviously the New York Jets beating Miami 40-17. Who knows what would have happened had Teddy Bridgewater not went down with an injury so quickly. Either way, Zach Wilson and the Jets won easily and are the proud owners of a record above .500. Congratulations, not many saw this coming.

San Francisco and Buffalo took care of business Sunday. Both teams beat their opponent by more than 20 points. Some in the media thought the Buffalo/Pittsburgh game might have been closer, as Buffalo was in a classic look-ahead spot facing Kansas City in Week 6, but it didn’t matter. Josh Allen had over 300 passing yards before halftime and the Bills never looked back. The 49ers got the win, but at what cost? They lost their starting CB Emmanuel Moseley for the year, safety Jimmy Ward broke his hand, Nick Bosa injured his groin and Robbie Gould didn’t return after leaving with a bruised knee. That is a lot of defensive firepower the 49ers rely on to be so dominant. 

Tom Brady Got the Call When He Needed It

The most controversial call of the weekend came when Falcon’s lineman Grady Jarrett was called for a “head-scratching” roughing the passer penalty which extended the Buccaneers drive and all but sealed a victory. We are self-proclaimed Brady haters, but we’d be remiss if we didn’t mention the missed DPI on Atlanta a play earlier. A Falcons CB tackled Tampa Bay’s wide receiver well before the ball reached them both. If the referees call that correctly, the game in over anyway. Missing that led to the brutal roughing the passer penalty and now even more controversy surrounding Tom Brady currently. 

MNF Crew Made an Even Worse Roughing the Passer Call

Kansas City beat Las Vegas in one of the most exciting MNF games I can remember. The RTP call on Chris Jones in the second quarter has to make the NFL competition committee sprint to the drawing board to try and figure out a way for this to quit happening. Derek Carr did not even possess the ball when the referee called the penalty. The Arrowhead crowd let the “zebras” hear their thoughts on the call as they did not stop booing until the start of the third quarter. The rule has to be changed soon, no other way around it.

Other Sunday Notes:

  • The New York Giants pulled off a major upset in London. The Giants might be better than we originally thought, but we still aren’t ready to say they’re good. As for the Packers, they should be close to pushing the panic button. Green Bay still has a winning record, but to be contenders, these are games they must win.
  • Minnesota beat Chicago, but the Bears at least made it interesting. Justin Fields finally threw the ball well. Look out NFL.
  • Dallas’ defense is still playing lights out. We said if they stop Los Angeles, it will go far towards proving they are for real. Holding Stafford and Kupp to a mere 10 points is all the proof we need to now see how dominant they actually are. Defense won’t be the problem for Dallas though. They’re offense needs to shift into gear because Parsons and the rest of the squad can only hold teams below 20 points for so long. 

Gambling Section

We can’t buy a winning week. 3 straight weeks of 2-3 has ruined our good start. Our handicaps have been on the right side, we just can’t get everything to line up. We still have 13 weeks to get hot and that’s our intention.