Season Predictions for the AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jacksonville Jaguars are either going to be good or Doug Pederson will be fired by Thanksgiving. There is no in between. The first half of their schedule is brutal. Before their Week 12 bye, they face Miami, Buffalo, Houston, Chicago, Philadelphia and Detroit all on the road. Those are all top 12-15 teams. Their home games are easier, but they still face Cleveland, Indianapolis, New England, Green Bay and Minnesota. A 4-7 start isn’t off the table.

Now after saying the bad news, how about some good news. This is arguably the best all-around roster Trevor Lawrence has ever had. Their offensive line leaves a lot to be desired, but they have some dudes on defense. Armstead, Allen and Walker are three great line pieces. Lloyd and Oluokon are one of the best LB tandems in the league. Savage and Wingard were both top 15 safeties last year (per PFF). The offense might only have to put up 21 points to win most games.

Key Additions
DT Arik Armstead
S Darnell Savage
C Mitch Morse

Key Losses
CB Tre Herndon

Houston Texans

The Houston Texans are quickly becoming one of the best teams in the NFL. They handled the draft perfectly two seasons ago, nabbing star quarterback CJ Stroud and edge Will Anderson Jr. In the offseason, the traded for Stefon Diggs and signed Joe Mixon to bolster their offensive weapons room. Derek Stingley Jr. is emerging as a top cornerback in the league. So why do we not have them winning the division? Mainly because they have the 7th hardest schedule (per SharpFootballAnalysis). Week 15-17 they play Miami, Kansas City and Baltimore. A tough stretch during the last season push.

I also believe CJ Stroud will have a bit of “sophomore slump”. His TD:INT ratio of 4.7 last year will be too hard to match. As I mentioned, he has weapons, so it is possible he keeps cruising along. I’m just not a believer yet that Stefon Diggs will be a positive on this team. Diggs’ ego could be more of a detriment to Stroud.

Both sides of Houston’s line could be a problem in 2024, and their linebackers aren’t great either. The loss of Cashman and Greenard sting. They have a lot of stars, but also a lot of holes. Houston will be fun to watch this year and should make it back to the playoffs. I just don’t think the team they put on the field in 2024 will be the best version we see from them in the next few years.

Key Additions
WR Stefon Diggs
DE Danielle Hunter
LB Azeez Al-Shaair

Key Losses
LB Blake Cashman
ED Jonathan Greenard

Indianapolis Colts

I am a believer in Shane Steichen. How could you not be after he was able to lead the Colts to a 9-8 record last year with Gardner Minshew? To be clear, that’s not Minshew slander as I know he could start for 5-6 teams in the league. I however am not a fan of Anthony Richardson. Being the biggest quarterback in the league doesn’t protect you from injury if you play like a mad man. The Colts have already said they’re pushing Richardson to keep running in 2024. I set the over/under at 7.5 games he plays, -200 to the under.

Steichen is a good coach. I just don’t see a path to success this year. They start with three home games in four weeks, then are gone five of the next seven. A week 14 bye means no rest until the second week of December. The Colts again have a top five offensive line, but they’ve had that forever. Indianapolis has a terrible secondary and a below average defensive line (at least on the edge). A combination opposing quarterbacks love. The offense won’t be able to keep up with what the defense is allowing, and Indianapolis will be picking in the top ten in 2025.

Key Additions
DT Raekwon Davis
S Julian Blackmon

Key Losses
RB Zack Moss

Tennessee Titans

Tennessee might be the worst team in 2024. I hate every move they made in the offseason and after looking at their roster, I can’t find one group I like. Terrible offensive line, bad quarterback, no pass rush. The wide receiver room is okay, largely because of Deandre Hopkins. Calvin Ridley is meh and showed it last year. Tony Pollard is one of the most overrated backs in the league and won’t come close to replacing Derrick Henry’s productions. To top it all off, they’re going into 2024 with a rookie head coach. None of this is a recipe for success.

Key Additions
WR Calvin Ridley
RB Tony Pollard
CB L’Jarius Sneed

Key Losses
RB Derrick Henry
LB Azeez Al-Shaair