Why Teams Must Go “All In” if They Want to be Super Bowl Contenders

The NFL has become more predictable in the past few years. Like the Dodgers and Yankees “buying the best teams every year” in baseball, the team hoisting the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season is a team that opens their checkbook. If a team truly wants to win a Super Bowl or put themselves in very serious contention, they have to make big, risky moves. These moves will likely cost them a lot of draft picks and a nice chunk of their cap space. Let’s look at the last three Super Bowl Winners: the Chiefs, Buccaneers and Rams. What was similar about all three of these teams? They went “all in” right before their crowning as SB champs. 

The Kansas City Chiefs had won 10+ games per season on average after bringing in Andy Reid and Alex Smith in 2013. They made the playoffs in all but one year of this duo’s time together. The Chiefs could have been happy being a consistent winner and always getting to the playoffs, especially considering their lack of success since the late 90s. But, they knew they were unlikely to make it to a Super Bowl or be a serious contender for that matter with Smith at QB. Smith was a fine quarterback, but was very conservative. He had an 18 game stretch where he didn’t throw a single touchdown to a WR. While they didn’t know just how good he would be in the NFL, the Chiefs drafted Patrick Mahomes because he was the opposite of Alex Smith. He had a cannon of an arm, could throw on the run, and was an overall gun-slinger. Mahomes had to win games in college by taking chances and putting up points. The Chiefs took what they saw from practices and one single regular season game and moved off of Alex Smith in the 2018 season. How did Mahomes reward their leap of faith? He was MVP and led the Chiefs to the most PPG in the NFL. They fell short in a shootout with the Patriots where Mahomes never got to touch the ball in OT, but they were on their way to greatness.

Mahomes’ first year as starter (2018), the Chiefs defense was atrocious. They allowed 26.2 ppg in the regular season and a baffling 40.2 ppg in games they lost that year. Kansas City, still not being satisfied and realizing their opportunity, fired their DC and signed Tyrann Mathieu and Frank Clark. Matthieu was and still is one of the biggest names in the NFL. He is rightfully looked at as one of the best playmakers in the league. Frank Clark was coming off a career year in Seattle and looked like a force to be reckoned with. The Chiefs had to make the decision to go “all in” twice to win the Super Bowl in 2019. I believe they would say it paid off. 

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were one of the most confusing teams in the league prior to the arrival of Tom Brady in 2020. They had talent on offense in DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans but switched back and forth between Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. These two could not have been more alike, as they were both great or awful on any given weekend. To be fair, their defense was bottom 3 in PPG allowed in 2018 and 2019, and bottom 10 in 2017. These factors led to the Buccaneers having double digit losses from 2017 to 2019. Going into 2020, they had a decision to make regarding their former first overall choice Jameis Winston. Would they go look to the draft or just move onto another fine, but not special QB? Instead, they signed Tom Brady. While there was some luck involved in this, it has been made clear Tom would not have come to Tampa if they were not “all in” and willing to listen to him regarding players to add. Tampa Bay ended up doing just that. They added former top 5 draft pick and Jaguars work-horse, RB Leonard Fournette. They then get Rob Gronkowski to come out of retirement and even sign troubled but gifted wide receiver, Antonio Brown. While there was no real risk or downside to Gronkowski coming back, Antonio Brown had recently faced assault charges and been famously uncooperative with the Raiders. The Buccaneers also drafted Tristin Wirfs to protect Brady and re-signed their entire defensive line, including Shaq Barrett, Ndamukong Sue and Jason Pierre-Paul. Even though they did not win the division and were not favored to win the Super Bowl at any point along the journey, it was clear by their roster changes they were going “all in” and had their eyes set on the ultimate prize. For the second year in a row, it paid off for a team with this mindset. 

The Los Angeles Rams have been one of the best and most dependable teams year over year since Sean McVay took over as head coach in 2017. They’ve averaged nearly 11 wins per year from 2017 to 2020, but much like the Chiefs in 2018, they decided that wasn’t enough. The Rams moved off of former number 1 overall draft pick Jared Goff just one season after signing him to a four year/134 million dollar contract extension. Similar to the Chiefs, the Rams decided Goff didn’t have the playmaking ability or arm strength needed to get them to the next level. Even though they had just extended him, the Rams did not pass up their opportunity to take this already solid team to Super Bowl favorites. They traded for Matthew Stafford in exchange for Goff, two 1st round picks and a third round pick. While they certainly upgraded at QB, it seemed like they overpaid in this trade. That is likely true, but this left no doubt that the Rams were now “all in”. They didn’t stop there of course, as they signed quality WR and former star Odell Beckham Jr. Then during the season they added former defensive player of the year and Super Bowl MVP Von Miller to an already dominant defense. The Rams going “all in” paid off. For the third straight year a team that either reinvented itself, spent a lot of money, traded picks and took on lots of risk, won the Super Bowl. 

It makes you wonder, are teams like the Ravens, Titans, Colts, Packers and Vikings actually trying to win a Super Bowl, or just trying to be relevant and get into the playoffs? The Ravens and Packers have MVP level QBs, but have no real threatening offensive weapons. Both teams have historically never made any effort to acquire them either. The Colts and Titans have been cycling middle or lower tier QBs for years now, even when the rest of the roster appears ready to contend at times. The Vikings have great offensive weapons, but Kirk Cousins isn’t a Super Bowl contending QB. He is a very solid QB, but clearly doesn’t have what it takes to contend with the elite teams. They have not attempted to get better at the QB position and seem happy (though not thrilled) to have Cousins. Looking at these teams (and teams like them) can only lead a person to one conclusion: there are only a handful of franchises in the NFL who are playing to win. Everyone else is trying more to just avoid irrelevance and make money.

Did you see a team as going “all in” this off season or possibly doing so during this upcoming season? Let us know what you think.