Will a Running Back Ever Win NFL MVP Again?

Historical Importance of the Running Back

It is no secret the NFL running back is not valued the way it was throughout its history. When the game was played with limited passing plays, the running back was the key feature of nearly every team’s offense. If you think about historically dominant offensive players from the 70-80’s and before, most are running backs. Jim Brown, Walter Payton, Gale Sayers, OJ Simpson are the names that very first come to mind when you think of offense those decades. All but one of these men were named NFL MVP at least once in their career and all of them are Hall of Fame members. There have been many other running backs since then to be named MVP (Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Marshall Faulk etc.), but in the last 20 years there have been only two running backs named MVP (Tomlinson 06’ & Peterson 12’). Over that time, and more broadly over the course of the NFL lifespan, the percentage of pass plays has gone up while runs have gone down. Since 2000 the percentage of pass plays has gone from 55% to around 60% (per footballperspective.com). As one would expect, the QB play has gotten far better (overall) with higher emphasis on throwing and rules to protect both the QB and receivers. It seems the NFL will be taken from the golden generation of QBs full of hall of famers to yet another golden generation of QBs filled with future hall of famers while the importance of the RB position has seemingly vanished in front of our very eyes.

What Would It Take For a RB to Win MVP?

While it almost seems like a waste of time to discuss when considering the quality and importance of QB play today, there must be some scenario (even if very unlikely to happen) where a running back would be voted as MVP. Most people would think of Derrick Henry’s 2020 season as the example of what it would take to be named MVP. WRONG! Derrick Henry did not receive a single vote even though he became just the 8th player in history to ever rush for 2000 yards in a season and his team made the playoffs. He was beat out by Aaron Rogers (MVP), Josh Allen (4 votes) and Patrick Mahomes (2 votes). They all had a minimum of 4300 pass yds and 35 TDs. I believe in order for a running back to have a solid chance to actually win the MVP, they would need a Ladanian Tomlinson in 2006 type of season. LT had over 2300 combined rush+rec yards and 33 total TDs. This means he had 143 yards and 2 TD per game from the running back position. You may be thinking to yourself, “So you would basically have to break the RB TD record or be darn close and have 2000+ rush/rec yards?”. Yes, to put it simply. Proof of this is Christian McCaffrey’s 2019 season where he had nearly 2400 yards from scrimmage and 19 total TD. He also did not get a single MVP vote as Lamar Jackson was the unanimous MVP that year. When top QBs are putting up nearly 5000 yards passing and around or over 40 TDs, it is going to take that kind of production from a RB to win MVP. With the combination of elite older QBs such as Rodgers, Brady and Stafford and the combination of young stud QBs such as Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Lamar and Burrow, chances are supremely high at least 2-3 of them will have impeccable statistical seasons. This leaves only the smallest of windows open for the possibility of a RB winning the MVP in the next future.

*Is there a RB in today’s game that is capable of pulling off such a feat? Who would it be: McCaffrey, Henry, Taylor, Ekler, Kamara, Cook? Let us know what you think.