Will the Raiders Call Derek Carr’s Bluff this Offseason?
Ian Rappoport reported earlier today Derek Carr is being benched for the last two weeks in favor of Jarrett Stidham. Additionally, other veterans are going to sit out to allow Las Vegas a chance to see what they have in younger players. This move has left a lot of people scratching their heads and understandably so.
Derek Carr has been directly quoted saying ‘I would probably quit football if I had to play somewhere else’. The only reason Las Vegas would bench him for these last two weeks is if they are planning to call his bluff. Don’t give me the “They don’t want him to get hurt in the last two games before his contract becomes guaranteed” stuff. If they wanted him to play for them next season, it wouldn’t matter when the contract becomes guaranteed. Carr has a full no-trade clause in his contract, so anywhere the Raiders want to send him, he would have to sign off on. The Raiders do have a potential out after this year resulting in only 5.6 million in dead cap space.
If this were a smart organization, they would have kept this private, left Carr in the starting lineup through the rest of the season and then started shopping him around (with his permission). Instead, they made everything public by benching him and will now not be able to get much, if anything for him. Other GMs know Las Vegas wants to move on. Why would they offer anything via trade if they can wait until after February 15th and get him for free? For people saying, “Who would take on Derek Carr’s contract and give him 40 million per year?”. I would say there are quite a few teams that would get in line for a quarterback who has thrown for 4,000+ yards the last 4 seasons and owns a 2.2 TD to INT ratio all while having 6 different head coaches in 9 years.
Let’s look at some potential landing spots we would like to see Carr at. I can see why everyone would say Indianapolis, but why would Carr want to do this? He already plays in the AFC. He already gets beat up by Mahomes, Herbert, Allen, Burrow and now an emerging Lawrence. No, the AFC doesn’t make sense. He needs to move over to the NFC. So, who looks good in the NFC? The top of the list has to be Carolina.
I wrote a few days ago about how Lamar should go to Carolina. I still believe that. Really, I just believe any decent quarterback would love this spot. Tom Brady, by all accounts, is leaving Tampa Bay after this year. New Orleans is in salary cap hell with no end in sight. Atlanta is still miles away from being a good football team. If Carr went to Carolina, they would easily move to the NFC South favorite. They’d win 8-9 games at least, which would be 2 more than needed to win this division. Carr would get a home playoff game and some decent pieces around him. Carolina also has a top-10 draft pick (barring any late/post season success). Adding Carr and another good, young piece to this team could turn them around very fast in a weak NFC.
If all else fails, Carr can always retire. He’s already made over 135 million in his career and seems like the type of guy to shut it down early, rather than pick up and move. Whatever happens before February, the Raiders should know they butchered this move. Even if Derek Carr ended up wanting to retire rather than be traded, at least that would have been private knowledge to only Las Vegas. Now the best-case scenario is the Raiders get a couple late draft picks. Worst case is they’re left with a 5.6-million-dollar dead cap hit and no quarterback prospects on the horizon.